Thursday, October 18, 2018

AAII Sentiment Neutral -- 34% cash recommended

Based  on  opinions 
of  individual  investors
from  a  www.aaii.com  online  survey.
   data source:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey





The indicator is bearish (red) 

when individual investors are bullish. 

The indicator is bullish (green) 
when individual investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes )






For the week ending October 17, 2018:
33.9%  bulls  (30.6% last week)  (historical average is 38.5%)

35.0%  bears (35.5% last week)  (historical average is 30.5%)
Moderately Bullish 
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
49.2% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish 
( was 46.3% last week )
   
( 50% to 70% is neutral )     







The  Four-Week  Average:
This is one of the seven EL page one 
stock market timing indicators.
It is the ONLY short-term timing indicator
= Neutral
( was Neutral last week )
53.5% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullis
( was 53.7% last week )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )








Recommended portfolio
cash position:
= 34% cash
( was 34% cash last week )







EL  Back-to-Basics  Portfolio  


actual  cash  position: 

= 85% cash  
( was 85% cash last week )






Note: 

I score this 
weekly
short-term 
stock market
timing indicator 
to recommend from
0% cash (most bullish), to
100% cash (most bearish).

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