Sunday, May 20, 2018

Economic data releases in past month

Summary: 
No sign of an economic boom

Note: 
During healthy 
economic growth, 
at least three-quarters
of data releases 
are good news,
(in black ink), 
so bad news
(in red ink) 
will be rare:
.
.
       5/16/18
Industrial  Production 
- April 2018               up +0.7%
- March 2018            up +0.7%
- February 2018       up +0.4%
- January 2018     down -0.4% 
- December 2017     up +0.4%
- November 2017     up +0.5% 
- October 2017         up +1.5%
- September 2017  unchanged
- August 2017       down -0.4% 
- July 2017            down -0.1%
- June 2017              up +0.1%
- May 2017            unchanged
.
.
        5/16/18  
Housing  Starts  
- April 2018           down -3.7%
- March 2018              up 3.6%
- February 2018   down -3.3%
- January 2018      up +10.2%
- December 2017 down -7.1%
- November 2017     up +3.0%
- October 2017         up +8.8%
- September 2017 down -1.1%
- August 2017       down -1.1%
- July 2017            down -2.6%
- June 2017              up +7.8%
- May 2017            down -2.2%
.
.
     5/4/18
April  2018 
Household  Survey
                    Employment
- Employment up only +3,000 in April 2018 (62.8% labor force participation)
- Employment down   -37,000 in March 2018 (62.9%)
- Employment up     +785,000 in February 2018 (63.0%
- Employment up     +409,000 in January 2018 (62.7%) 
- Employment up     +104,000 in December 2017 (62.7%)
- Employment up       +71,000 in November 2017 (62.7%)
- Employment down -478,000 in October 2017 (62.7%)
- Employment up     +906,000 in September 2017 (63.0%) 
- Employment down    -74,000 in August 2017 (62.9%) 
- Employment up      +345,000 in July 2017 (62.9%) 
- Employment up      +245,000 in June 2017 (62.8%) 
- Employment down   -233,000 in May 2017 (62.7%)

                  Unemployment
- Unemployment down -239,000 in April 2018
    (but decline is due to drop outs from labor force)
- Unemployment down -121,000 in March 2018
    (but decline is due to drop outs from labor force)
- Unemployment up       +22,000 in February 2018
- Unemployment up     +108,000 in January 2018
- Unemployment down   -40,000 in December 2017
- Unemployment up       +92,000 in November 2017
- Unemployment down -235,000 in October 2017
- Unemployment down -331,000 in September 2017
- Unemployment up     +151,000 in August 2017
- Unemployment up         +4,000 in July 2017
- Unemployment up     +116,000 in June 2017
- Unemployment down -195,000 in May 2017
.
          5/3/18  
Factory  Orders 
- March 2018         up +1.6% 
- February 2018    up +1.6% 
- January 2018 down -1.3% 
- December 2017 up +1.8%
- November 2017 up +1.7%
- October 2017     up +0.4% 
- September 2017 up +1.7%
- August 2017       up +1.2% 
- July 2017        down -3.3% 
- June 2017           up +3.2% 
- May 2017         down -0.3%
- April 2017        down -0.3% 
.
.
      5/1/18
Auto  Sales
- April 2018           was 17.2 million annual sales rate
- March 2017         was 17.5  
- February 2018    was 17.1
- January 2018     was 17.2 
- December 2017  was 17.9 
- November 2017  was 17.5
- October 2017      was 18.1 
- September 2017 was 18.6 
- August 2017       was 16.1
- July 2017            was 16.8
- June 2017           was 16.7 
- May 2017             was 16.8 
.
.
        5/1/18
Construction  Spending
- April 2018       down -1.7%
- February 2018    up +1.0%
- January 2018    unchanged
- December 2017  up +1.6%
- November 2017  up +1.2%
- October 2017      up +0.1%
- September 2017 up +1.3%
- August 2017        up +0.5%
- July 2017        down -0.9%
- June 2017       down -0.8%
- May 2017            up +1.6%
.
.
       4/27/18
1Q  2018 GDP 
 Real final sales  
excludes volatile inventory changes
     ( first estimate )
1Q 2018 was +1.9%
4Q 2017 was +3.4%
3Q 2017 was +2.4%
2Q 2017 was +3.0%
1Q 2017 was +2.7%
4Q 2016 was only +0.7%
3Q 2016 was +2.6% 
2Q 2016 was +2.9% 
.
         4/24/18
 Case-Shiller  Home  Price Index
    (20-city not seasonally adjusted)
- February 2018    up +0.7% from January 2018  
- January 2018      up +0.3% 
- December 2017  up +0.2% 
- November 2017  up +0.2% 
- October 2017      up +0.2%
- September 2017 up +0.4% 
- August 2017        up +0.4 
- July 2017            up +0.7% 
- June 2017           up +0.7% 
- May 2017            up +0.9% 
- April 2017           up +1.0%     
- March 2017         up +0.3%
        
Year-over-Year Gain
- February 2018 up +6.8% over February 2017          
.
.
           4/24/18
Durable  Goods  Orders
- March 2018         up +2.6%
- February 2018    up +3.5%
- January 2018  down -3.5%
- December 2017  up +2.7%
- November 2017  up +1.7%
- October 2017  down -0.4%
- September 2017 up +2.4%
- August 2017       up +2.1%
- July 2017        down -6.8%
- June 2017           up +6.4%
- May 2017          unchanged
- April 2017        down -0.8%

      Excluding the volatile 
transportation industry orders:
Unchanged in March 2018 
  Up +0.9% in February 2018
Down -0.3% in January 2018
   Up +0.8% in December 2017
   Up +0.4% in November 2017
   Up +1.4% in October 2017
   Up +1.1% in September 2017
   Up +0.7% in August 2017
   Up +0.5% in July 2017
   Up +0.2% in June 2017
   Up +0.1% in May 2017
Down -0.4% in April 2017 
.
           4/29/18
New  Home  Sales  
- March 2018           up +4.0% 
- February 2018      up +3.6% 
- January 2018    unchanged
- December 2017 down -9.4%
- November 2017   up +13.0% 
- October 2017     down -3.6%
- September 2017  up +14.3% 
- August 2017       down -0.1%
- July 2017            down -8.9%
- June 2017              up +2.1% 
- May 2017               up +1.3% 

- April 2017           down -6.3%

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