my recently published
ECONOMIC LOGIC
newsletter,
is reformatted here
for easy cell phone reading.
It was on the first page,
but was off topic for the issue
(not related to crypto-currencies
or the Trump trade war),
so may have been overlooked:
" … I’ve been noticing
that historical Real GDP
growth numbers
are often wrong on TV
-- one pundit claimed
Obama had 1% growth
and Trump had 4% growth
-- possibly quoting
a Trump Tweet.
Here are the facts:
Obama,
for 2010 through 2016,
had +2.2% average growth.
Trump was +2.2% in 2017.
In 2015, Obama had +2.9% growth.
For Trump,
1Q 2018
was up +2.8%
year-over-year,
and 2Q 2018
was up +2.9% y-o-y,
for an average of +2.9%.
(Year-over-year analyses avoid
questionable seasonal adjustments)."
I did not have room
in the newsletter,
to add this:
-- Obama's best year, at 2.9%
did not have the stimulus
of a tax cut.
-- Trump's best half year
(2018) did have the stimulus
of a large tax cut
(the overall Trump tax cut
was moderate, but it was
"front loaded" to be
large in the year 2018
to benefit the Republicans
in the 2018 election).
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