Wednesday, September 19, 2018

US Real GDP growth -- real facts, not "alternative facts".

An excerpt from 
my recently published
ECONOMIC LOGIC 
newsletter,
is reformatted here 
for easy cell phone reading.
It was on the first page, 
but was off topic for the issue
(not related to crypto-currencies 
or the Trump trade war), 
so may have been overlooked:



" … I’ve been noticing
that historical Real GDP 
growth numbers 
are often wrong on TV 
-- one pundit claimed 
Obama had 1% growth 
and Trump had 4% growth 
-- possibly quoting 
a Trump Tweet. 


Here are the facts: 


Obama, 
for 2010 through 2016, 
had +2.2% average growth. 

Trump was +2.2% in 2017. 



In 2015, Obama had +2.9% growth. 

For Trump, 
1Q 2018 
was up +2.8% 
year-over-year, 
and 2Q 2018 
was up +2.9% y-o-y, 
for an average of +2.9%. 

(Year-over-year analyses avoid 
questionable seasonal adjustments)."



I did not have room 
in the newsletter,
to add this:

-- Obama's best year, at 2.9%
did not have the stimulus
of a tax cut.

-- Trump's best half year
(2018) did have the stimulus
of a large tax cut
(the overall Trump tax cut
was moderate, but it was 
"front loaded" to be 
large in the year 2018 
to benefit the Republicans 
in the 2018 election).

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