AAII Sentiment Moderately Bullish -- 4% cash, 96% stocks recommended for traders


This contrary indicator 
is bearish (red) 
when individual investors 
are bullish. 

This contrary indicator 
is bullish (green) 
when individual investors 
are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes )

Data Source:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey


The Four-Week Average
is one of the seven 
ECONOMIC LOGIC
stock market 
timing indicators.

It is the ONLY 
short-term 
timing indicator,
and should 
be useful 
for traders.

I prefer the four-week 
moving average
because it has
much less volatility
than weekly data

For the week ending 
December 19, 2018:
24.9%  bulls  (20.9% last week)  (historical average is 38.5%)


47.3%  bears (48.9% last week)  (historical average is 30.5%)
Bullish
( was Bullish last week )

34.5% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish = (smallest % bullish since February 2016)
( was 29.9% last week )
   

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

The  Four-Week  Average:

= Moderately Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )

41.5% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullish 
( was 41.6% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral ) 
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Recommended 
portfolio
cash position:

= 4% cash

( was 4% cash last week )

EL  Back-to-Basics  Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 


= 85% cash  
( was 85% cash last week )





Note: 
I score this weekly 
short-term 
stock market 
indicator
to recommend from

0% cash (most bullish), to
100% cash (most bearish).