Netflix is a strange company with a strange business plan -- I can't figure out why investors still like it

In 2019, Netflix will have

several new competitors

with very "deep pockets"

for buying new content.

The Netflix stock price 

has been declining.

In mid-summer, 

Netflix stock

peaked at $423.21, 

and is currently at 

$ 266.84 ( 12/14/18 close )

Disney, Fox and 

WarnerMedia 

have all pulled 

some content 

from Netflix.

Netflix’s free cash flow 

is projected at close to 

negative $3 billion in 2018, 

a new, scary record for the 

cash-burning company.

New competition 

in 2019 

will be pulling 

a lot more content

from Netflix, 

and thereby stealing 

Netflix subscribers 

who liked that content.

Disney is launching 

its Netflix-style 

subscription service 

in 2019 -- Disney+ .

Disney+ will feature 

Disney content

... which Netflix 

will be losing.

Disney is

also acquiring 

20th Century Fox, 

so that content 

will be leaving

Netflix too.

AT&T’s WarnerMedia 

is aiming at Q4 2019 

for its Netflix-style 

competitor, 

and then their content 

will be pulled from Netflix.

If you wanted to buy

a streaming service 

for your family in 2019, 

your might prefer 

the one with: 

- Disney movies, 

- Marvel,

- Pixar Animations,

- Star Wars,

- ESPN,

- ABC,

- X-Men,

not to mention

Mickey Mouse 

and Donald Duck!

That would be 

Disney+, 

because Netflix 

will have none 

of that content 

after Disney+ 

launches in 2019.

Disney already has 

the best content.

They also have 

very "deep pockets"

for buying additional 

content.

Amazon Prime 

Is ramping up 

their spending 

on new content

( original shows ).

Downton Abbey,

for one example,

used to be on Netflix, 

but now that 

entire series 

is exclusively 

on Amazon Prime.

Amazon Prime 

is gaining market share,

and they also have 

"deep pockets"

for buying new content.

Amazon announced 

spending of $5 billion 

on original content in 2019.

Netflix immediately 

reacted to Amazon

-- deciding to increase 

their 2019 spending 

on new content by 50%, 

from $8 to $12 billion,

despite Netflix having 

a huge amount of debt, 

growing rapidly, 

already on their books !

According to 

research firm 

Ampere Analysis: 

-- Disney and Fox 

are projected to spend 

$22 billion per year 

on both original content

and purchased content. 

-- Comcast and Sky 

are expected to spend 

$21 billion in 2018.

Netflix 

does promote 

their original content. 

Original content 

accounted for 37% 

of Netflix’s 

U.S. streams 

in October 2018, 

up from 24% 

a year earlier,

and just 14% 

in January 2017,

according to video

-measurement firm 

7Park Data. 

But that means 63% 

of the content Netflix

subscribers watch,

has to be purchased

from other companies.

That 63% of

licensed content, 

is becoming 

very expensive.  

For example,

Netflix made a deal 

to renew streaming 

of “Friends” for 

another year ... 

for $100 million !

Warner Bros.-owned 

“Friends” had been 

No. 3 at Netflix— 

but $100 million is

hard to believe 

for 1990s-era 

situation comedy 

reruns, for one year!

I am not a Netflix, 

or any other 

streaming service, 

subscriber.

I know Netflix's 

monthly price 

has been 

reasonable

-- that's great

for subscribers, 

but not for 

a company 

that was

"burning cash",

at an increasing rate,

BEFORE facing 

new competitors 

in 2019, with 

"deep pockets".

I can't figure out 

why any investors

still like Netflix stock.

Their business plan 

does not suggest

long-term survival

of the company.