AAII Sentiment Moderately Bullish -- 17% cash recommended


This contrary indicator 
is bearish (red) 
when individual investors 
are bullish. 

This contrary indicator 
is bullish (green) 
when individual investors 
are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes )

Data Source:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey



The Four-Week Average
is one of the seven 
ECONOMIC LOGIC
stock market 
timing indicators.

It's the ONLY 
short-term 
timing indicator.

I prefer the four-week 
moving average
because it has
much less volatility
than weekly data

For one week ending 
January 16, 2019:
33.5%  bulls  (38.5% last week)  (historical average is 38.2%)


36.3%  bears (29.4% last week)  (historical average is 30.3%)
( Moderately Bullish )
( was Neutral last week )

48.0% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish
( was 56.7% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Four-Week  Average:

= Moderately Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )

46.7% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullish 
( was 43.3% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral ) 
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Recommended 
portfolio
cash position:

= 17% cash

( was 8% cash last week )

    The  EL  
Back-to-Basics
    Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 


= 74% cash  
( was 75% cash last week )




Note: 
I score this 
weekly 
short-term 
stock market 
indicator
to recommend 
from

0% cash to
100% cash