AAII Sentiment Moderately Bullish -- 8% cash recommended for traders


This contrary indicator 
is bearish (red) 
when individual investors 
are bullish. 

This contrary indicator 
is bullish (green) 
when individual investors 
are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes )

Data Source:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey



The Four-Week Average
is one of the seven 
ECONOMIC LOGIC
stock market 
timing indicators.

It's the ONLY 
short-term 
timing indicator.

I prefer the four-week 
moving average
because it has
much less volatility
than weekly data

For one week ending 
January 9, 2019:
38.5%  bulls  (33.0% last week)  (historical average is 38.2%)


29.4%  bears (42.8% last week)  (historical average is 30.3%)
Neutral
( was Moderately Bullish last week )

56.7% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish
( was 43.5% last week )
   

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Four-Week  Average:

= Moderately Bullish
( was Bullish last week )

43.3% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullish 
( was 36.6% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral ) 
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Recommended 
portfolio
cash position:

= 8% cash

( was 0% cash last week )

    The  EL  
Back-to-Basics
    Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 


= 75% cash  
( was 75% cash last week )




Note: 
I score this 
weekly 
short-term 
stock market 
indicator
to recommend 
from

0% cash to
100% cash