AAII Sentiment returns to Neutral -- 26% cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Average
of this contrary indicator,
is one of the seven 
ECONOMIC LOGIC
front page 
stock market
timing indicators 


It's the ONLY 
short-term 
timing indicator.

I prefer the four-week 
moving average
because it has
much less volatility
than weekly data

For  one  week  ending 
January 23, 2019:
37.7%  bulls  (33.5% last week)  (historical average is 38.2%)


32.3%  bears (36.3% last week)  (historical average is 30.3%)
( Neutral )
( was Moderately Bullish last week )

53.9% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish
( was 48.0% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Four-Week  Average:

= Neutral 
( was Moderately Bullish last week )

50.5% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullish 
( was 46.7% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral ) 
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )

Recommended 
portfolio
cash position:

= 26% cash

( was 17% cash last week )

    The  EL  
Back-to-Basics
    Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 


= 74% cash  
( was 74% cash last week )





Notes: 


This contrary indicator 
is bearish (red) 
when individual investors 
are bullish. 

This contrary indicator 
is bullish (green) 
when individual investors 
are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes )

I score this weekly 
short-term 
stock market indicator
to recommend from

0% cash to 100% cash


Data Source:
https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey