Real GDP just before a recession starts, is often surprisingly strong

Data below of real GDP

( inflation-adjusted ) 

economic growth rates: 

Each of the dates below 

shows the growth rate 

of the economy 

immediately prior to 

the onset of a recession.

In 1957, 1973, 1981, 2001, and 2007. 

there was “no sign of a recession":

• September 1957:    3.07%

• May 1960:               2.06%

• January 1970:        0.32%

• December 1973:    4.02%

• January 1980:        1.42%

• July 1981:               4.33%

• July 1990:               1.73%

• March 2001:           2.31%

• December 2007:    1.97%