Recent economic data releases ( Note: Household employment survey captures laid off goobermint employees )

Full list of indicators I track each month:
https://elblog2019.blogspot.com/

Richard Greene
since 1953,
Bingham Farms, Michigan
since 1987,
-- MBA, Finance, 1977
Stern School of Business,
at New York University
-- BS, 1975
State University of New York,
at Albany
-- Retired lazy bum,
since January 2005



         2/4/19  

Factory  Orders

November 2018 down -0.6% 
- October 2018   down -2.1% 

- September 2018  up +0.2%      

- August 2018        up +2.6% 

- July 2018         down -0.5% 

- June 2018            up +0.6% 

- May 2018              up +0.4%

- April 2018        down -0.4%

- March 2018          up +1.7% 

- February 2018     up +2.0% 

- January 2018 down -1.6% 

- December 2017  up +1.8%

- November 2017  up +2.0%

.

.

.
.

     2/1/19

Household  

Employment  
Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the headline

Payroll Survey 

-- so I recommend 

averaging three months

of data: 

       Employment 

- Employment down  -251,000 in January 2019 (63.2%)\
                                                                    ( 63.2% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up      +142,000 in December 2018 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +233,000 in November 2018 (62.9%)
- Employment up     + 600,000 in October 2018 (62.9%)

- Employment up      +420,000 in September 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment down  -423,000 in August 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment up      +389,000 in July 2018 (62.9%) 

- Employment up      +102,000 in June 2018 (62.9%) 

- Employment up      +293,000 in May 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment up only  +3,000 in April 2018 (62.8%)

- Employment down    -37,000 in March 2018 (62.9%)

- Employment up      +785,000 in February 2018 (63.0%

       Unemployment

- Unemployment     up +241,000 in January 2019 
- Unemployment     up +276,000 in December 2018 
- Unemployment  down -94,000 in November 2018
- Unemployment       up +81,000 in October 2018

- Unemployment down -270,000 in September 2018

- Unemployment down   -46,000 in August 2018

- Unemployment down -284,000 in July 2018

- Unemployment up     +499,000 in June 2018

- Unemployment down -281,000 in May 2018

- Unemployment down -239,000 in April 2018

- Unemployment down -121,000 in March 2018

- Unemployment up       +22,000 in February 2018

- Unemployment up     +108,000 in January 2018

- Unemployment down   -40,000 in December 2017

Notes:

The Household Survey 

includes self employed 

(The Payroll Survey does not), 
and

The Household Survey 

does not double-count jobs

when a person has 

two or three part-time jobs.

(The Payroll Survey does).

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need 

huge negative revisions

in the months just before, 

and just after, 

a recession begins.