Auto Sales Analysis

I used to write about auto sales

every month on this blog, until 

GM and Ford decided to report 

sales quarterly, rather than monthly.

There are organizations who estimate

monthly auto sales, including GM

and Ford, but I prefer to work 

with real data, not estimates.

And real data are only available quarterly.

Auto fleet sales, 

such as to rental companies,

are low profit margin sales, 

but they can keep an assembly plant 

busy when retail sales are weak.

Rental car deliveries, and other 

"fleet sales", accounted for 

over one-third of total sales last month 

for Ford and Nissan, according to 

Cox Automotive. 

Deliveries to rental companies in March,

and the whole first quarter, were the highest 

in two years.

Rental car sales have lower profit margins,

and erode used vehicle prices once they 

hit the resale market. 

An unusually large percentage of 

fleet sales tends to indicate weak

retail sales.

Zohaib Rahim, of Cox Automotive, said:

"Any favorable view we have of the market 

is because of sales into fleets. 

The market peak of 2016 is behind us 

and retail sales are softening 

more and more now."

Automakers sold 550,000 vehicles 

to rental car companies in 1Q 2019,

the most since 1Q 2016,

and up 6% so far this year,

after a 7% rise in 2018, 

to 2.7 million. 

In March, Ford's fleet deliveries 

were 39% of sales, including 

19 percentage points from 

rental car companies. 

Nissan's total fleet share was 36%, 

with "most" of the volume 

from rental companies.

Here's some sales data 

split by manufacturer:

Quarterly Data Available:

--General Motors down 7%

for the quarter

--Ford sales are expected 

to be down a few percent

for the quarter.

Monthly Data Available:

--Fiat Chrysler down 7.3% for March 2019

--Toyota down 3.5% for March 2019

and down 5% for the quarter.

--Nissan down 5.3% for March 2019,

and down 11.6% for the quarter.

--Honda up 4.3% for March 2019