Curious Containerboard Carnage

March 2019 data 

were released last week, 

by the American Forest 

& Paper Association and 

the Fibre Box Association 

for containerboard mill 

and downstream 

corrugated box plants.

(1)

Box demand was 

much weaker

than expected.

Actual and “average week” 

shipments were down 3% y-o-y.

Even the bearish estimates

were for continued growth, 

of 1% to 2.5% growth

The estimates missed by a lot

-- the worst "miss" since January 2016

(2)

Mill operating rates 

fell to their lowest levels 

in almost a decade. 

March's 86.4% was below 

a very weak February (89.5%). 

Anything below 92-94%

is bad news.

(3)

Exports slumped 18.9%, 

year-over-year

Containerboard and box shipments 

are an indicator of trade momentum.