Monday, April 8, 2019

March employment data has some peculiar details not in the mainstream press

All economic data releases tracked 
at this blog are here:
https://elblog2019.blogspot.com/

My comments on:
March 2019
Household 
Survey:
Friday April 4, 2019
This survey is about 50% more
volatile than the Payroll Survey,
for employment numbers.

It does not move in the 
opposite direction often, 
especially over 
a four month period.


But it just did:


November 2018:
156,803,000  Americans employed


March 2019:
156,748,000  Americans employed,
down 55,000 from November 2018 !




Notes on 
employment surveys:

The Household Survey 
includes self employed 
(The Payroll Survey does not), 
and

The Household Survey 
does not double-count jobs
when a person has 
two or three part-time jobs.
(The Payroll Survey does).

The Household Survey 
is more accurate
in the months just before 
a recession begins,
but all employment surveys 
are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 
tends to need huge 
negative revisions
in the months 
just before, 
and just after, 
a recession begins.







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