at this blog are here:
https://elblog2019.blogspot.com/
My comments on:
March 2019
Household
Survey:
Friday April 4, 2019
This survey is about 50% more
volatile than the Payroll Survey,
for employment numbers.
It does not move in the
opposite direction often,
especially over
a four month period.
But it just did:
November 2018:
156,803,000 Americans employed
March 2019:
156,748,000 Americans employed,
down 55,000 from November 2018 !
Notes on
employment surveys:
employment surveys:
The Household Survey
includes self employed
(The Payroll Survey does not),
and
and
The Household Survey
does not double-count jobs
when a person has
two or three part-time jobs.
(The Payroll Survey does).
The Household Survey
is more accurate
in the months just before
a recession begins,
but all employment surveys
are LAGGING indicators.
The Payroll Survey
tends to need huge
negative revisions
negative revisions
in the months
just before,
just before,
and just after,
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