Thursday, June 6, 2019

AAII Sentiment now Bullish, for the first time since 1/2/19 -- zero cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Average 
of this contrary indicator,
is one of the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC
stock market timing indicators.
It's the ONLY 
short-term timing indicator.
It recommends from 
0% to 100% cash 
in your trading portfolio

I prefer the four-week moving average 
because it has much less volatility
than weekly data.


For the one week 
ending June 5, 2019:
22.5%  bulls  (24.8% last week)  (historical average is 38.2%)

42.6%  bears (40.1% last week)  (historical average is 30.3%)
= Bullish
( was Bullish last week )
34.6% of AAII investors 
with an opinion were bullish
( was 38.2% last week )


( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )



Four  Week  
Average:
Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
39.1% of AAII investors 
with an opinion are bullish 
( was 46.7% last week )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral ) 
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )



( under 40% is Bullish )





Recommended 
portfolio
cash position:
= 0% cash
( was 17% cash last week )

Note: 
The recommended cash position 
on 12/26/18 and 1/2/19 was 0% (zero)



    The  EL  
Back-to-Basics
    Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 
= 85% cash  
( was 85% cash last week )



Notes: 


This contrary indicator 
is bearish (red) 
when individual investors 
are bullish. 
This contrary indicator 
is bullish (green) 
when individual investors 
are bearish.
( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).

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