May 2019 US Employment Data do NOT support theories of a strong economy in 2019

The Household Employment survey 
gets headlines only for 
the unemployment rate. 

I prefer it for 
jobs numbers too. 

Because it includes 
the self-employed, and 
does not count one person 
working two part time jobs 
as "two jobs". 

It is also more accurate 
in the months just before 
a recession begins. 

And that long introduction 
leads to this fact:

The Household Employment
phone survey for May 2019 
found there were 
156,758,000 
employed Americans, 
    LOWER   THAN   
  NOVEMBER  2018 
-- six months earlier, 
when there were 
156,803,000 
employed Americans !
.

.
.

     6/7/19

Household  

Employment  
Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the headline

Payroll Survey 

-- so I recommend 

averaging three months

of data: 

   Employment 

- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)
                                                      ( 62.8% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -201,000 in March 2019 (63.0%)
- Employment up      +255,000 in February 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment down  -251,000 in January 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +142,000 in December 2018 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +233,000 in November 2018 (62.9%)
- Employment up     + 600,000 in October 2018 (62.9%)

- Employment up      +420,000 in September 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment down  -423,000 in August 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment up      +389,000 in July 2018 (62.9%) 

- Employment up      +102,000 in June 2018 (62.9%) 

- Employment up      +293,000 in May 2018 (62.7%)

- Employment up only  +3,000 in April 2018 (62.8%)

   Unemployment

- Unemployment up       +64,000 in May 2019

- Unemployment down -389,000 in April 2019

      decline entirely due to a huge -490,000 decline of the labor force

- Unemployment down   -24,000 in March 2019
- Unemployment down -300,000 in February 2019
- Unemployment     up +241,000 in January 2019 
- Unemployment     up +276,000 in December 2018 
- Unemployment  down -94,000 in November 2018
- Unemployment       up +81,000 in October 2018

- Unemployment down -270,000 in September 2018

- Unemployment down   -46,000 in August 2018

- Unemployment down -284,000 in July 2018

- Unemployment up     +499,000 in June 2018


All monthly economic data releases
are always located here:
www.ELblog2019.Blogspopt.com

Notes:

Household Survey 

vs. Payroll Survey

PAYROLL  SURVEY:

( "establishment survey" ) 

Used for the headline 

jobs growth number, 

released the first Friday 

of every month, based on 

employer reporting.

--- Three part-time jobs 

count as three jobs.

The BLS claims 

that they attempt to 

avoid double-counting,

but they don't eliminate 

duplicate Social Security 

numbers, so the potential 

for double-counting jobs 

in the Payroll Survey is large.

-- The self employed are 

not included.

HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY: 

-- This is a phone survey, 

conducted by the BLS. 

-- Includes the self employed.

-- If you work one hour a week, 

even selling things on eBay, 

you are considered employed.

-- If you don’t have a job, 

and fail to look for one, 

you are considered to be 

out of the labor force. 

Searching through want-ads, 

or looking online for jobs, 

does not count. 

You need to submit a resume, 

or talk to a prospective 

employer, or employment 

agency.

--- If you work three part-time jobs, 

12 hours each, the Household

Survey considers you 

a full-time employee.

NEED  FOR  REVISIONS

The Household Survey

is never revised -- the

phone calls are made once.

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need large

negative revisions

in the months 

just before, and just after, 

a recession begins.