The trade deal with China is not going well

Candidate Trump 

promised far too much 

for any president to deliver,

even in two terms, 

unless he had over 60 

loyal votes in the Senate, 

and a majority in the House

for all eight years.

The Republican majority 

in the Senate

could have changed 

the ridiculous Senate

filibuster rules, 

as I recommended

many times in my 

Election Circus blog,

but they were "chicken" !

As a result, President Trump 

is not getting any significant 

length of new border walls 

with Mexico, to campaign on

in 2020.

Illegal immigration is worse

than ever before.

Federal deficit spending 

is worse than ever before, 

when considering the 

current stage of the 

business cycle

( 10 years after the last recession

ended, with under 4% unemployment ).

The Mexico - Canada trade

trade deal was just

"NAFTA 2.0" -- 

more public relations,

than meaningful reform, 

and unlikely to be 

approved by Congress.

We still have troops 

in Afghanistan,

and some of them 

have died under Trump.

The "nuclear deal" 

with North Korea

was just public relations.

Iran is still developing 

nuclear weapons, and

now bombing oil tankers, 

as Trump does nothing 

meaningful in response. 

With all of the failures

I've just listed, Trump 

still wants to win 

the 2020 election.

That's why he needs 

a Chinese trade deal

in the next 12 months.

But the Chinese 

do not need a deal. 

That's why they 

walked away from 

negotiations 

In May 2019.

In response, Trump 

raised tariffs to 25%, 

and cut off Huawei 

from U.S. suppliers.

But then Trump backtracked, 

by not following through 

on $300 billion of new tariffs, 

mainly on consumer goods,

allowing Huawei to purchase 

U.S. goods, and easing 

Chinese VISA rules. 

Trump had to cave in.

He needs a deal, and the 

Chinese know it.

The Chinese have not even 

admitted to an intellectual

theft problem, much less 

doing anything to control it.

Trump has boxed himself 

into a corner -- the prospects 

for a meaningful deal 

decline as the 2020 election

approaches.

As a negotiator, Trump

is a legend ONLY in his

own mind.

As the months move on,

and no progress is obvious,

it becomes more likely

that any deal will be

an unenforceable,

nearly meaningless, 

public relations event,

just like NAFTA 2.0.

Trump's best hope for

winning the 2020 election

is the radicalization of the

Democrat Party, promising

"free stuff" they can't pay for,

to win an election.

I'd like to hope Americans 

are too smart to fall for the

empty "free stuff" promises, 

but Democrats are not 

smart enough -- maybe many

independents will be similar ?

Trump has been spending

money like a drunken sailor

on shore leave -- not a great 

starting point to effectively 

refute a Democrat "free stuff" 

strategy.

Although Trump has failed to

close the Mexico border, 

Democrats seem to favor 

"open borders", which only 

makes the problem worse 

-- Democrats are shooting

themselves in the foot with 

their "open borders" stupidity.

Some Democrats even call for

free medical care for illegal 

immigrants, and reparations 

for black ancestors of 

American slaves, but not for 

ancestors of white Americans 

-- the Republicans -- many who died

and were crippled fighting to end 

the Democrat institution of slavery.