Saturday, August 31, 2019

AAII Sentiment is now Bullish -- 0% cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Moving Average 
of this contrary opinion indicator,
is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC
U.S. stock market timing indicators.

It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

It recommends from 
0% to 100% cash 
in your trading portfolio.


Indicator Analysis:
   (  over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 
  ( under 40% is Bullish )

I prefer the four-week moving average 
because it has much less volatility
than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.



For the week ending August 28, 2019:
26.1%  bulls  (26.6% last week) 
    (historical average is 38.5%)
42.2%  bears (39.7% last week) 
    (historical average is 30.5%)
= Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
38.2% of AAII investors were bullish
( was 40.1% last week )


Four  Week  Moving  Average:
Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
= 35.9% of AAII investors are bullish 
( was 41.7% last week )


Recommended  
portfolio  
cash percentage 
for  stock  traders 
= 0% cash
( was 4% cash last week )



The EL Back-to-Basics
Long  Term  
Investment  Portfolio  
actual  cash  position: 
= approximately 75% cash  
( was 75% cash last week )


Notes: 
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink") 
when individual AAII investors are bullish. 

This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink") 
when individual AAII investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).

Data Source:

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