The Four-Week Moving Average
of this contrary opinion indicator,
is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC
U.S. stock market timing indicators.
It's the ONLY short-term indicator.
It recommends from
0% to 100% cash
0% to 100% cash
in your trading portfolio.
Indicator Analysis:
( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )
( under 40% is Bullish )
I prefer the four-week moving average
because it has much less volatility
than weekly data.
Active traders may prefer weekly data.
For the week ending August 28, 2019:
26.1% bulls (26.6% last week)
(historical average is 38.5%)
42.2% bears (39.7% last week)
(historical average is 30.5%)
= Bullish
= Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
38.2% of AAII investors were bullish
( was 40.1% last week )
Four Week Moving Average:
Bullish
Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
= 35.9% of AAII investors are bullish
( was 41.7% last week )
Recommended
portfolio
cash percentage
for stock traders
= 0% cash
portfolio
cash percentage
for stock traders
= 0% cash
( was 4% cash last week )
The EL Back-to-Basics
Long Term
Investment Portfolio
Long Term
Investment Portfolio
actual cash position:
= approximately 75% cash
= approximately 75% cash
( was 75% cash last week )
Notes:
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink")
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink")
when individual AAII investors are bullish.
This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink")
when individual AAII investors are bearish.
( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).
Data Source:
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