AAII Sentiment remains Neutral -- 39% cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Moving Average 

of this contrary opinion indicator,

is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC

U.S. stock market timing indicators.

It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

It recommends from 
0% to 100% cash 

in your trading portfolio.

Indicator Analysis:

   (  over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

I prefer the four-week moving average 

because it has much less volatility

than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.

For the week ending July 31, 2019:

38.4%  bulls  (31.7% last week) 

    (historical average is 38.5%)

24.1%  bears (32.0% last week) 

    (historical average is 30.5%)
= Neutral

( was Moderately Bullish last week )

61.4% of AAII investors were bullish

( was 49.8% last week )

Four  Week  Moving  Average:
Neutral

( was Neutral last week )

55.5% of AAII investors are bullish 

( was 52.8% last week )

Recommended  
portfolio  
cash percentage 
for  stock  traders 
= 39% cash

( was 32% cash last week )

   Note: 
The recommended cash position 

on 12/26/18 and 1/2/19 was 0% (zero)

The  EL Back-to-Basics

  Long  Term  
Investment  Portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 
= approximately 63% cash  

( was 63% cash last week )

Notes: 
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bullish. 

This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey