From the page one
"Recession Watch"
column in mid-May 2019
( The May June 2019
ECONOMIC LOGIC
newsletter ):
"The big concern is the US-China trade war, started by Trump, with no other nations supporting him.
That was a mistake.
As a negotiator, Trump is a legend only in his own mind.
Reality is lots of talk, but little accomplished.
I haven’t heard China even admit to an intellectual property theft problem.
The "new" 25% tariffs are strike one for the US economy.
25% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods would be strike two.
Strike three would be harsh Chinese retaliation.
No one wins a trade war.
This one must not be going well, because Trump just ramped up his "tough talk".
Unfortunately, his tough talk has a knack for creating a Trump Derangement Syndrome, among opponents, where emotions replace reason.
The lack of progress means a path to a bear market, and recession, is now visible, for the first time.
Keep your fingers crossed that the trade war does not backfire on us."
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