AAII SENTIMENT REMAINS MODERATELY BULLISH -- only 4% cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Moving Average 

of this contrary opinion indicator,

is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC

U.S. stock market timing indicators.

It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

It recommends from 
0% to 100% cash 

in your trading portfolio.

Indicator Analysis:

   (  over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

I prefer the four-week moving average 

because it has much less volatility

than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.

For the week ending 
October 16, 2019:

33.6%  bulls  (20.3% last week) 

    (historical average is 38.5%)

31.1%  bears (44.0% last week) 

    (historical average is 30.5%)
= Neutral

( was Bullish last week )

51.9% of AAII investors were bullish

( was 31.6% last week )

Four  Week  Moving  Average:
Moderately Bullish

( was Moderately Bullish last week )

= 41.4% of AAII investors are bullish 

( was 42.4% last week )

Recommended  
portfolio  
cash percentage 
for  stock  traders 
= 4% cash

( was 6% cash last week )

The EL Back-to-Basics
long term portfolio  

actual  cash  position: 
= approximately 84% cash  

( was 86% cash last week )

Notes: 
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bullish. 

This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey