Economic Data Release -- September Household Employment Survey = good news

    10/4/19

September
Household  

Employment  
Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the headline

Payroll Survey 

-- so I recommend 

averaging 
three months

of data: 

   Employment 

- Employment up      +393,000 in September 2019 (63.2%)
                                                              ( 63.2% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up      +590,000 in August 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +283,000 in July 2019 (63.0%)

- Employment up      +247,000 in June2019 (62.9%)
- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -201,000 in March 2019 (63.0%)
- Employment up      +255,000 in February 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment down  -251,000 in January 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +142,000 in December 2018 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +233,000 in November 2018 (62.9%)
- Employment up     + 600,000 in October 2018 (62.9%)

   Unemployment

- Unemployment down  -275,000 in September 2019
- Unemployment down    -19,000 in August 2019

- Unemployment up        +88,000 in July 2019 

- Unemployment up        +87,000 in June 2019
- Unemployment up        +64,000 in May 2019

- Unemployment down -389,000 in April 2019

- Unemployment down   -24,000 in March 2019
- Unemployment down -300,000 in February 2019
- Unemployment     up +241,000 in January 2019 
- Unemployment     up +276,000 in December 2018 
- Unemployment  down -94,000 in November 2018
- Unemployment       up +81,000 in October 2018

Notes:

Household Survey 

vs. Payroll Survey

PAYROLL  SURVEY:

( "establishment survey" ) 

Used for the headline 

jobs growth number, 

released the first Friday 

of every month, based on 

employer reporting.

--- Three part-time jobs 

count as three jobs.

The BLS claims 

that they attempt to 

avoid double-counting,

but they don't eliminate 

duplicate Social Security 

numbers, so the potential 

for double-counting jobs 

in the Payroll Survey is large.

-- The self employed are 

not included.

HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY: 

-- This is a phone survey, 

conducted by the BLS. 

-- Includes the self employed.

-- If you work one hour a week, 

even selling things on eBay, 

you are considered employed.

-- If you don’t have a job, 

and fail to look for one, 

you are considered to be 

out of the labor force. 

Searching through want-ads, 

or looking online for jobs, 

does not count. 

You need to submit a resume, 

or talk to a prospective 

employer, or employment 

agency.

--- If you work three part-time jobs, 

12 hours each, the Household

Survey considers you 

a full-time employee.

NEED  FOR  REVISIONS

The Household Survey

is never revised -- the

phone calls are made once.

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need large

negative revisions

in the months 

just before, and just after, 

a recession begins.