Recreational Vehicles and the puzzling Q3 2019 advance GDP estimate

GDP data here:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2019-advance-estimate

I've been interested in 

Recreational Vehicles (RVs)

for many decades.

Not because 

I wanted to buy one.

But because their sales

are a good leading indicator 

of the U.S. economy.

Domestic shipments of RVs 

to dealers fell 22% in the 

first five months of this year, 

compared to the same period 

last year, after dropping 4% in 2018

( Source: Recreational Vehicle Industry Association )

Tariff-related price hikes 

forced RV manufacturers 

to pass on costs to dealerships, 

slowing the sales by dealers,

who then cut their orders 

and laid off workers.

President Trump's tariffs 

hit steel and aluminum, 

and other retaliatory duties 

hit thousands of Chinese-made 

RV parts, from electronics 

to LED lights to vinyl.

Michael Hicks, a Ball State 

University economist 

who tracks the industry, 

warned that the collapse 

in RV shipments could indicate 

a wider economic downturn.

Hicks said shipments 

had fallen shar

last three U.S. recessions.

"The RV industry is a 

great bellwether 

of the economy," 

said Hicks, 

"because the vehicles 

are an expensive 

and discretionary purchase, 

easily delayed by consumers 

who start to worry about 

their financial stability."

Managers at 

RV manufacturers 

and suppliers 

said President 

Trump's trade war 

is why the industry 

is now crashing.

"The tariff 

price increases 

are what tipped 

the RV business

 — it started 

the landslide, 

no question," 

said Tom Bond, 

the materials 

and purchasing 

manager at

Adnik Manufacturing, 

an Elkhart-based division 

of Norco Industries.

Michael Happe, 

CEO of Winnebago 

Industries Inc, 

said tariffs had forced 

RV manufacturers to 

increase costs to dealers

Thor Industries, which controls 

almost 50% of the North America 

RV market, reported its sales 

have dropped 23% in its fiscal 

third quarter, which ended in April, 

compared to a year ago. 

Production cuts and layoffs 

have been happening at some 

of Thor's North American plants.

Thor RV assembler 

Demiris Jahmal Williams 

told Reuters his hours were cut, 

and  "This is the worse I've seen it."

The first "advance" GDP estimate

for 3Q 2019 claimed spending

by U.S. households had a 

strong +2.9% annual growth rate

The biggest driver of spending 

in the third quarter was 

recreational goods and vehicles ?

While RV sales are crashing, 

according to manufacturers,

the Bureau of Economic Analysis

( US government GDP data compiler )

claims US consumer 

spending on

"Recreational  

Goods and  Vehicles "

increased more 

than at any time 

in the past 5 years,

which does not make sense !

Q3 2019 

"Recreational goods 

and vehicles" spending 

rose by $23.2 billion, 

at an annual rate,

accounting for

more than a quarter 

of the entire $93.6 

Q3 increase of  all 

consumer spending.

That is puzzling.

Even more puzzling is that

the biggest driver of Q2 2019

consumer spending was 

also also recreational goods 

and vehicles !