The "Trade War" -- Trump is a Negotiating Legend in His Own Mind

NOTE:

I have no indication there is 
anything more than 
an oral agreement, 
with no enforcement 
mechanism. 

The Chinese have requested that the language of the trade deal will never be made public.

So I'm not confident there is a real "deal", written on paper, specifying certain terms, and signed by the US and Chinese presidents. 

The "Phase One trade deal" could be nothing more than a con job -- a market manipulating blank piece of paper. 

China has only pledged to do something - which is not written down, so they'll have no incentive to abide by the oral Phase One "deal".

Has there been, or will there be, a signing event between President Trump and President Xi ?

If no signing, then there is certainly no written document to be seen by the public.

Did I mention that China has NEVER followed up on previous promises for fairer trade?

Now Trump can brag about a "great deal" until the election, and falsely claim an even better Phase 2 deal will happen after the 2020 election ... that, in my opinion, will never happen, whether Trump wins or loses the election.

SUMMARY:

There are several nations that can never be trusted. 

Deals with them are meaningless. 

They include China, North Korea, Iran and Venezuela. 

It is puzzling that in the past five years the U.S. has attempted to make deals with three of those four nations. 

Iran and North Korea never stopped their nuclear programs. 

That was obvious right away with Iran, when they said their military bases were off limits to nuclear inspections. 

Trump wasted time and money with North Korea.

China has a long history of repeatedly reneging on promises it has made to past administrations.

I believe this is NOT really a “Phase One” trade-deal.

I believe this will be the only U.S. China trade deal.

Trump caved in to get the “Trade Deal” off the table before the 2020 election. 

There is no actual enforcement mechanism, so none of this will be implemented, based on Chinese trade promises in the past.

Trump the salesman / con man, will spin this limited deal as a ‘win’,  saying ‘China is caving to his tariffs’.

But it is possible Trump may never mention another China trade deal again, just like we don't hear about the pretend denuclearization deal’ with North Korea

DETAILS:

Last Thursday, previously delayed tariffs on Chinese goods got delayed again.

Last Friday, a “Phase One” trade deal was announced, which included “some” tariff relief, and agricultural purchases. 

Trump has insisted that China buy more American crops as part of a deal, and cheered the commitment in his tweets.

Trump claimed America’s farmers need to get ready for a $50 billion surge in agricultural exports.

That statement is typical Trump BS.

China did not agree to buy any specific amount of goods from the U.S..

Bloomberg reported:

"CHINA PLANS TO IMPORT U.S. WHEAT, RICE, CORN WITHIN QUOTAS

Furthermore, there is speculation the agreement is primarily verbal in terms of purchases, and the actual agreement of the entire trade deal will never be made public."

The agricultural purchases increase were a clever trick.

China significantly 
cut U.S. agricultural 
purchases in 2018. 

China bought less than 
$10 billion of U.S. 
farm produce in 2018. 

That was way down from a peak of $25 billion in 2012, long before the trade war broke out.

China sourced deals from Brazil and Argentina for pork and soybeans to offset reduced imports from the U.S. 

These agreements won’t be cancelled to shift to the U.S. while Trump is president, because Trump could reinstate tariffs at any moment, for any reason.

China set themselves up in 2018 to offer to make a huge increase of agricultural purchases in 2020, just to get back to the 2017 level ... and they'd still be under the 2012 level.

if China agrees to double their exports in the coming year, it would only get back to the 2017 level, before the tariffs started.

Since 2018, a serious disease killed approximately one quarter of all the hogs in the world, creating China's new need to import pork.

“The U.S. plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, a priority for Beijing," Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. 

President Trump said he would leave 25% tariffs on $250 billion in imports in place, while cutting existing duties on another $120 billion in products to 7.5%.

China will consider canceling retaliatory tariffs set for Dec. 15, according to Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. 

The trade war was started by Trump against China. 

The two countries have been ‘talking’ for two years with little real progress to show for it outside of superficial agreements.

China has not admitted to a serious intellectual property theft problem.

Trump needed a deal done before the 2020 election.

China knows this.

China is not going to jeopardize its 50-year economic growth plan on a current President who will be gone in one year, at the least, or five years, at most.