Monday, January 13, 2020

Economic Data Releases last week


Note: 
During healthy 
economic growth, 
at least three-quarters
of data releases 
are good news,
(in black ink), 
so bad news
(in red ink) 
will be rare:
.
Historical Note:
2017 Real GDP was up +2.4%, over 2016 (Trump)
2018 Real GDP was up +2.9%, over 2017 (Trump)
Obama averaged +2.2%, after the recession ended
.

         1/7/20  
Factory  Orders
- November 2019    down -0.7%
- October 2019             up +0.2%
- September 2019    down -0.8%
- August 2019          down -0.1%
- July 2019                   up +1.4%
- June 2019                  up +0.5%
- May 2019               down -1.3%
- April 2019              down -1.2%
- March 2019                up +1.3%
- February 2019       down -1.0%
- January 2019     up only +0.1%
- December 2018          up +0.2%

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        1/3/20
Construction  Spending
- November 2019       up +0.6%
- October 2019   up only +0.1%
- September 2019      up +0.7%
- August 2019            up +1.1%
- July 2019                 up +0.5%
- July 2019                 up +0.5%
- June 2019            down -0.9%
- May 2019             down -0.7%
- April 2019                up +0.6%
- March 2019              up +0.8%
- February 2019          up +0.5%
- January 2019           up +1.4%
- December 2018   down -0.5%


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   1/10/20
December
Household  
Employment  
Survey
    Note: 
50% more volatile, 
from month to month,
than the headline
Payroll Survey 
-- so I recommend averaging 
three months of data: 

   Employment 
- Employment up      +267,000 in December 2019 (63.2%)
                                                          ( 63.2% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up       +83,000 in November 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +241,000 in October 2019 (63.3%)
- Employment up      +393,000 in September 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +590,000 in August 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +283,000 in July 2019 (63.0%)
- Employment up      +247,000 in June2019 (62.9%)
- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -201,000 in March 2019 (63.0%)
- Employment up      +255,000 in February 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment down  -251,000 in January 2019 (63.2%)


   Unemployment
- Unemployment down   -58,000 in December 2019
- Unemployment down   -44,000 in November 2019
- Unemployment up        +86,000 in October 2019
- Unemployment down  -275,000 in September 2019
- Unemployment down    -19,000 in August 2019
- Unemployment up        +88,000 in July 2019 
- Unemployment up        +87,000 in June 2019
- Unemployment up        +64,000 in May 2019
- Unemployment down -389,000 in April 2019
- Unemployment down   -24,000 in March 2019
- Unemployment down -300,000 in February 2019
- Unemployment     up +241,000 in January 2019 


Note:
 All monthly economic data releases are here:
www.ELblog2019.Blogspot.com

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