AAII Sentiment Remains Neutral -- 38% cash recommended for traders

The Four-Week Moving Average 

of this contrary opinion indicator,

is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC

U.S. stock market timing indicators.

It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

It recommends from 0% to 100% cash 
in your stock trading portfolio.

Indicator Analysis:

   (  over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

I prefer the four-week moving average 

because it has much less volatility

than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.

For the week ending 
February 12, 2020:

41.3%  bulls  (33.9% last week) 

    (historical average is 38.5%)

26.4%  bears (35.2% last week) 

    (historical average is 30.5%)
= Neutral

( was Moderately Bullish last week )

61.0% of AAII investors were bullish

( was 49.1% last week )

Four  Week  Moving  Average:
= Neutral

( was Neutral last week )

= 55.3% of AAII investors were bullish 

( was 55.2% last week )

Recommended  
portfolio  
cash percentage 
for  stock  traders 
= 38% cash

( was 38% cash last week )

The EL Back-to-Basics
long term portfolio

actual  cash  position: 
= approximately 86% cash  

( was 86% cash last week )

Notes: 
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bullish. 

This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink") 

when individual AAII investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey