Data Release from last week

The Household Survey is distorted by annual revisions every January, so the Payroll (Establisment) Survey is better for Januaries.

All monthly economic data releases are always here:
www.ELblog2019.Blogspot.com


   2/7/20

December
Household  

Employment  
Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the more popular

Payroll Survey 

-- so 
I recommend 

averaging 
three months

of data: 

   Employment 
- Employment down    -85,000 in January 2020 (63.4%)
                                                        ( 63.4% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up      +267,000 in December 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up        +83,000 in November 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +241,000 in October 2019 (63.3%)
- Employment up      +393,000 in September 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +590,000 in August 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +283,000 in July 2019 (63.0%)

- Employment up      +247,000 in June2019 (62.9%)
- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -201,000 in March 2019 (63.0%)
- Employment up      +255,000 in February 2019 (63.2%)

   Unemployment
- Unemployment     up +139,000 in January 2020 
- Unemployment down   -58,000 in December 2019
- Unemployment down   -44,000 in November 2019
- Unemployment up        +86,000 in October 2019

- Unemployment down  -275,000 in September 2019
- Unemployment down    -19,000 in August 2019

- Unemployment up        +88,000 in July 2019 

- Unemployment up        +87,000 in June 2019
- Unemployment up        +64,000 in May 2019

- Unemployment down -389,000 in April 2019

- Unemployment down   -24,000 in March 2019
- Unemployment down -300,000 in February 2019

Notes:

Household Survey 

vs. Payroll Survey

PAYROLL  SURVEY:

( "establishment survey" ) 

Used for the headline 

jobs growth number, 

released the first Friday 

of every month, based on 

employer reporting.

--- Three part-time jobs 

count as three jobs.

The BLS claims 

that they attempt to 

avoid double-counting,

but they don't eliminate 

duplicate Social Security 

numbers, so the potential 

for double-counting jobs 

in the Payroll Survey is large.

-- The self employed are 

not included.

HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY: 

-- This is a phone survey, 

conducted by the BLS. 

-- Includes the self employed.

-- If you work one hour a week, 

even selling things on eBay, 

you are considered employed.

-- If you don’t have a job, 

and fail to look for one, 

you are considered to be 

out of the labor force. 

Searching through want-ads, 

or looking online for jobs, 

does not count. 

You need to submit a resume, 

or talk to a prospective 

employer, or employment 

agency.

--- If you work three part-time jobs, 

12 hours each, the Household

Survey considers you 

a full-time employee.

NEED  FOR  REVISIONS

The Household Survey

is never revised -- the

phone calls are made once.

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need large

negative revisions

in the months 

just before, and just after, 

a recession begins.