Monday, February 10, 2020

January 2020 -- Trump "loses" 501,000 jobs -- what does that mean ?

What just happened ?

Other than some 
Democrats getting
really excited !

The annual 
benchmark 
revisions to the 
establishment 
( aka "payroll" ) 
survey 
(plus the
annual 
introduction 
of new population 
controls for the 
household 
employment 
survey). 







The Bureau of 
Labor Statistics
had a large 
downward 
adjustment 
of -501,000 
to the level of 
March 2019 
employment. 

This implies 
a -42,000 
per month
slower pace 
of job growth,
on average, 
from April 2018 
to March 2019 
( +168,000 / month
             vs. 
+210,000 / month )



President Trump's 
State of the Union 
address highlighted
7 million net jobs 
created since 
he took office.

Actual data,
for January 2020
to January 2017,
confirms his
claim:
Payroll Survey:
+6,559,000
Household Survey:
+ 6,585,000

These are 
excellent
numbers
for an 
economic
recovery 
that was 
already 
7.5 years old
when Trump 
took office.










But the overall
rebound from
the last Recession 
was the weakest
( Real GDP growth )
since GDP data were 
first compiled in 1929.

This is most 
easily seen 
in the labor force
participation rate,
that never returned 
to the pre-Great 
Recession level.
( aka: The December 
2007 Recession ) 





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