Economic Data Releases Last Week

Note: 

During healthy 

economic growth, 

at least three-quarters

of data releases 

are good news,

(in black ink), 

so bad news

(in red ink) 

will be rare:

         3/5/20  

Factory  Orders
- January 2020       down -0.5%
- December 2019        up +1.8%
- November 2019    down -1.2%
- October 2019             up +0.2%
- September 2019    down -0.8%
- August 2019          down -0.1%
- July 2019                   up +1.4%
- June 2019                  up +0.5%
- May 2019               down -1.3%
- April 2019              down -1.2%
- March 2019                up +1.3%
- February 2019       down -1.0%

.
.
.
        2/2/20
Construction  Spending
- January 2020          up +1.8%
- December 2019       up +0.2%
- November 2019       up +1.6%
- October 2019           up +0.4%
- September 2019      up +0.7%
- August 2019            up +1.1%
- July 2019                 up +0.5%
- July 2019                 up +0.5%
- June 2019            down -0.9%
- May 2019             down -0.7%
- April 2019                up +0.6%
- March 2019              up +0.8%
- February 2019          up +0.5%

.

.

.

     2/25/20

 Case-Shiller  Home  Price Index

.
.

.

   3/6/20

December
Household  

Employment  
Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the 
more popular

Payroll Survey 

-- so I recommend 

averaging three months

of data: 

   Employment 
                                                              ( 63.4% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up        +45,000 in February 2020 (63.4%)
- Employment down    -85,000 in January 2020 (63.4%)
                                                        ( 63.4% is the labor force participation rate )
- Employment up      +267,000 in December 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up        +83,000 in November 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +241,000 in October 2019 (63.3%)
- Employment up      +393,000 in September 2019 (63.2%)
- Employment up      +590,000 in August 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +283,000 in July 2019 (63.0%)

- Employment up      +247,000 in June2019 (62.9%)
- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)
- Employment down  -201,000 in March 2019 (63.0%)

   Unemployment
- Unemployment down -105,000 in February 2020
- Unemployment     up +139,000 in January 2020 
- Unemployment down   -58,000 in December 2019
- Unemployment down   -44,000 in November 2019
- Unemployment up        +86,000 in October 2019

- Unemployment down  -275,000 in September 2019
- Unemployment down    -19,000 in August 2019

- Unemployment up        +88,000 in July 2019 

- Unemployment up        +87,000 in June 2019
- Unemployment up        +64,000 in May 2019

- Unemployment down -389,000 in April 2019

- Unemployment down   -24,000 in March 2019

Notes:

Household Survey 

vs. Payroll Survey

PAYROLL  SURVEY:

( "establishment survey" ) 

Used for the headline 

jobs growth number, 

released the first Friday 

of every month, based on 

employer reporting.

--- Three part-time jobs 

count as three jobs.

The BLS claims 

that they attempt to 

avoid double-counting,

but they don't eliminate 

duplicate Social Security 

numbers, so the potential 

for double-counting jobs 

in the Payroll Survey is large.

-- The self employed are 

not included.

HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY: 

-- This is a phone survey, 

conducted by the BLS. 

-- Includes the self employed.

-- If you work one hour a week, 

even selling things on eBay, 

you are considered employed.

-- If you don’t have a job, 

and fail to look for one, 

you are considered to be 

out of the labor force. 

Searching through want-ads, 

or looking online for jobs, 

does not count. 

You need to submit a resume, 

or talk to a prospective 

employer, or employment 

agency.

--- If you work three part-time jobs, 

12 hours each, the Household

Survey considers you 

a full-time employee.

NEED  FOR  REVISIONS

The Household Survey

is never revised -- the

phone calls are made once.

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need large

negative revisions

in the months 

just before, and just after, 

a recession begins.