COVID-19 -- Politicians working with incomplete science and economics in a presidential election year -- what could possibly go wrong ?

"It's the biggest 

decision I ever

had to make."

President Trump

That statement,

about restarting

the U.S. economy, 

concerned me.

Not because I'm

a Democrat, who 

criticizes every 

decision Trump

makes.

But because the

decision belongs

to state governors,

not the president.

And even within

each state, the 

densely populated 

urban areas have 

very different

needs than 

the rural areas.

I doubt if Democrat

governors would 

care what Trump 

recommends

-- they'd probably 

do the opposite !

Many Republican 

governors would take

his administration's

advice ... but if it 

backfired, Trump's

second term will not

be an easy victory.

A 'one size fits all'

decision for the entire

nation does not make 

sense.

It may turn out that the

original 'one size fits all' 

decision by most state

governors to shut down

most economic activity,

was a mistake.

The few stores that

remained open, such

as grocery stores,

became too crowded.

Here in Michigan, 

the few open stores

just started limiting

the number of shoppers

allowed in at one time.

Our political leaders 

decided the top priority

was to prevent deaths.

But not to isolate 

only the people 

who were most likely

to die -- mainly older

people, with other 

medical issues,

many retired.

Younger people,

very unlikely 

to die, had to 

sacrifice their

jobs.

Was that a brilliant

decision, or a foolish

decision ? 

We don't

know yet.

APRIL  WILL  

BE  TOUGH

Flu infections 

typically peak

in March, and 

deaths peak

in April. 

April will be 

a tough month 

for Americans, but 

worst-case-scenarios 

from computer games,

highlighted in the media, 

are not credible.

GOVERNMENT  

     POWER

As a libertarian

since the 1970s, 

I have to think about 

setting a new precedent 

for government power, 

that resembles

martial law.

Since 2010, the flu 

has killed between 

12,000 and 61,000 

Americans per year,

according to the 

U.S. Centers for 

Disease Control and 

Prevention website. 

20,000 to 40,000 

flu deaths per year

are typical.

Governments 

did almost nothing 

to address deaths 

from conventional

influenza viruses

in prior decades.

But their 

response to 

COVID-19 

was huge,

expensive, 

and also very

damaging to

the economy.

Every additional 

month of the partial

economic shutdown

makes the economic

damage worse.

Unfortunately,

when the

shelter in place 

people start 

going back

to work, there 

are likely to be

more flu infections.

How many more, 

no one knows.

There's no perfect

risk free response

to COVID-19.

THE  FORCED  

UNEMPLOYMENT

AFFECTS  HEALTH:

Losing a job, 

combined with 

mandatory stay 

at home orders,

for more than 

a month or two,

could become

a serious 

physical and/or 

mental health 

problem. 

Losing a job 

is stressful. 

Bills that 

can't be paid 

are stressful. 

There will 

be more 

spouse abuse, 

child abuse, 

alcohol and 

drug abuse, 

other medical 

conditions 

that are 

worsened 

by stress 

and anxiety, 

and more 

suicides too.

Burglaries 

are bound

to increase, 

and possibly

some looting

as the weather

gets warmer,

depending on 

how desperate

unemployed

people get. 

GETTING  PEOPLE 

BACK  TO  WORK

IS  NOT  A  SIMPLE

YES  OR  NO:

We need serious

discussions.

Maybe a few states

relax their rules

first, and we see

what happens 

in the next 

few weeks ?

There are 

several 

COVID-19

"hot spots",

and many 

rural areas, 

with little 

in common.

The goal should 

be a "cure" that's 

not worse than 

the disease.

Learning from 

experiences

in other nations,

where COVID-19

peaked earlier,

is important.

Discussions

on restarting 
our economy 
are just starting, 

During those 

discussions, 

I'm concerned

about honesty.

Honesty means

people admitting 

they don't know

answers to many 

COVID-19 

questions.

That's typical 

of real science.

Honesty means 

people admitting 

shutting down 

most of the 

U.S. economy

will eventually

be worse than

the disease !

POTENTIAL

POLITICAL

ROADBLOCKS

Can you 

even imagine

having strong 

bipartisan 

cooperation

by politicians, 

during an 

election year !

Especially with 

President Trump

running for

reelection, 

and so many

Democrats

with "Trump 

Derangement 

Syndrome" !

FUTURE  

EPIDEMICS:

For future epidemics,

which could include

COVID-19 returning

in the fall, we need 

answers to these 

questions: 

-- Should governments 

"crash the economy" 

every time ?

-- Everywhere, 

or just for urban 

flu "hot spots" ?

THE  SCIENCE:

Science is 

supposed to 

tell us what to do.

But the science 

of the COVID-19

disease is

incomplete.

We can't even 

be sure that

warmer weather 

will cause the 

usual seasonal 

flu slowdown.

We do know that

warm nations with 

high malaria rates

have had unusually

low rates of COVID-19

infections, so far.
https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2020/03/source-blog-of-roy-spencer-phd-httpwww.html

I previously wrote 

about that relationship,

but what caused it ?

The warm weather,

or the high usage of 

anti-malaria drugs 

in those nations ?

FATALITY  

RATE  DATA:

Political decisions

were based on 

incomplete fatality 

rate data, and very 

inaccurate models.

The COVID-19 

fatality statistics 

released so far,

are not "facts".

Deaths blamed 

on COVID-19 

could have 

been caused 

by other 

flu strains.

Fatal pneumonia 

could have had 

other causes.

Most people,

perhaps 80%, 

get mild or 

invisible 

COVID-19

symptoms.

If they died,

then it was

probably from 

something else.

People can die 

with COVID-19, 

rather than from 

their COVID-19. 

( aka “they would 

have died anyway, 

before long” ).

CHINA  DATA:

It took four weeks, 

after very strict 

social distancing 

was implemented 

in Wuhan, before 

daily deaths 

finally peaked,

we were told. 

Data out of China 

may not be reliable, 

but that specific 

number is at least 

believable.

"FLATTENING  

THE  CURVE":

“Flattening 

the curve”

means 

reducing 

the rate of 

COVID-19 

multiplication. 

We need the rate 

to be less than one.

That means each infected 

person infects fewer than 

one new person, producing 

exponential decay, rather

than exponential growth.

ECONOMICS 

OF COVID-19

The social 

"science" of 

economics 

does not have 

experience with

huge pandemics,

other than the 

1918 / 1919 flu,

which affected

young people,

and was poorly 

documented

in history books.

There's really

no prior experience

to answer "what if" 

questions about

the long-term 

consequences of 

the current mandatory 

economy shutdowns,

and when economic

activity should resume

to prevent a depression.

We're already 

in a recession

for each week 

tens of millions

of Americans 

are unemployed,

whether officially 

called a recession, 

or not.

MEDICAL  

KNOWLEDGE:

The science of medicine 

tells us influenza takes 

a lot of lives EVERY year.

Adding COVID-19 

deaths makes

the conventional 

flu death rate 

higher.

COVID-19 

is much better 

at spreading itself 

than common 

influenzas that

we’re familiar with, 

and much more 

dangerous to old 

and/or physically 

fragile people.

But It appears

that at least

99% of all

infected people 

will survive 

COVID-19.

I guess that's 

the good news!

The science of medicine 

tells us people staying 

at home are unlikely 

to catch COVID-19 

... which also prevents 

them from developing 

COVID-19 antibodies.

Without lots of people 

having COVID-19 

antibodies, and no 

vaccine, COVID-19 

could still be here

for the next "flu season" 

-- October 1, 2020, 

through March 2021.

REMAIN  AT  HOME

FOR  HOW  LONG ?

I think it would be 

logical to assume

'remain at home' 

rules do prevent

flu deaths, from 

ALL types of flu.

Or at least 

they delay flu 

deaths, for the 

most vulnerable 

people.

But how long 

will people be 

willing to tolerate 

staying at home ?

Can we keep children

inside for months

during warm weather ?

And how about people

who are giving up

needed personal 

and/or business 

income by staying 

at home ?

Perhaps a $2 trillion 

bailout can ease 

SOME of the 

economic pain

from one month of

a forced business 

shutdown.

But are we supposed

to pressure the Federal

Reserve Bank to create

$2 trillion of new credit

EVERY month, 

out of thin air, until

there is a COVID-19 

vaccine, and every 

American has

been vaccinated ?

It typically takes well 

over a year to develop

a new vaccine -- 

six months would be

 a new record.

Forced unemployment

for six months ?

I don't think so.

We might have 

a revolution !

TALK  TALK  TALK: 

I wish that President

Trump, and Governor 

Cuomo, would SHUT

UP -- they both talk

far too much on TV 

about COVID-19.

Ten times more than 

necessary, in my 

humble opinion.

They are both unable 

to predict the future 

of COVID-19,

yet they keep quoting 

failed computer game

models !

Listening to those

two blabbermouths

is stressful, when

we really need 

to relax and laugh !