Sunday, April 19, 2020

Economic News for the week ending April 17, 2020

Source:

Coronavirus Watch:

April 13 – Reuters (Maria Caspani and Jessica Resnick-Ault): “Ten U.S. governors on the east and west coasts banded together on Monday in two regional pacts to coordinate gradual economic reopenings as the coronavirus crisis finally appeared to be ebbing. Announcements from the New York-led group of Northeastern governors, and a similar compact formed by California, Oregon and Washington state, came as President Donald Trump declared any decision on restarting the U.S. economy was up to him. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he was teaming up with five counterparts in adjacent New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island to devise the best strategies for easing stay-at-home orders imposed last month to curb coronavirus transmissions.”


April 13 – CNBC (William Feuer and Berkeley Lovelace Jr.): “World Health Organization officials said… not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19. ‘With regards to recovery and then reinfection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown,’ Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program, said…”



April 13 – Bloomberg (Isis Almeida and Michael Hirtzer): “On Sunday, one of America’s largest pork slaughterhouses shut down after more than 200 workers tested positive for the coronavirus. A day later, a massive beef-processing plant in Colorado announced it’s winding down operations. In Canada at least five meat plants have halted operations since the end of March. And most companies haven’t said exactly when they’ll reopen. To be clear: Nobody is saying North America is running out of meat yet. In fact, refrigerated inventories remain robust… and most plants remain open. But the virus… is spreading -- and the prospect of prolonged shutdowns has the boss of Smithfield, the world’s top pork producer, warning America is ‘perilously close’ to a shortfall.”


April 14 – New York Times (Michael Corkery and David Yaffe-Bellany):
“The nation’s food supply chain is showing signs of strain, as increasing numbers of workers are falling ill with the coronavirus in meat processing plants, warehouses and grocery stores. The spread of the virus through the food and grocery industry is expected to cause disruptions in production and distribution of certain products like pork, industry executives, labor unions and analysts have warned in recent days. The issues follow nearly a month of stockpiling of food and other essentials by panicked shoppers that have tested supply networks as never before. Industry leaders and observers acknowledge the shortages could increase, but they insist it is more of an inconvenience than a major problem.”


Market Instability Watch:

April 15 – Reuters (Davide Barbuscia, Marwa Rashad and Andrea Shalal): “Finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies agreed… to suspend debt service payments for the world’s poorest countries through the end of the year, a move quickly matched by a group of hundreds of private creditors. The actions to freeze both principal repayments and interest payments will free up more than $20 billion for the countries to spend on improving their health systems and fighting the coronavirus pandemic, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told reporters…”


April 14 – Bloomberg (Joe Light): 
“The nascent market for private U.S. mortgages is teetering on the brink of collapse as the coronavirus crisis imperils years of work to lessen the government’s role in home lending. Several firms that issue mortgage bonds without federal guarantees have laid off most of their staffs and stopped doing business as the economy grinds to a halt. And the once-burgeoning market for securities that shift risk from government-backed agencies to private investors has also stalled, with some traders saying they’ve had trouble even getting prices.”


Global Bubble Watch:

April 15 – CNBC (Fred Imbert): 
“The global economic downturn has been so severe that already half of the world has asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout, the organization’s chief said… ‘This is an emergency like no other. It is not because of bad governors or mistakes,’ Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC’s Sara Eisen… ‘For that reason, we are providing funding very quickly.’ ‘We are asking for one thing only: Please pay your doctors and nurses, make sure that your health [care] systems are functioning, and that vulnerable people and first responders are protected,’ Georgieva said.”


April 15 – Financial Times (Chris Giles): “The increase in borrowing by governments around the world as a result of the coronavirus pandemic will be ‘massive’, the IMF said…, forecasting that population lockdowns and economic contractions would push budget deficits to well above peak levels during the financial crisis. Globally, net public debt will rise from 69.4% of national income last year to 85.3% in 2020…, raising concerns about the willingness of the private sector to finance governments with chequered records in servicing their borrowings. In its first attempt to quantify the scale of the damage caused to public finances by coronavirus, the fund provisionally forecast that global public deficits will climb by 6.2 percentage points this year to reach 9.9% of national income, topping levels seen in 2008-9.”


April 14 – Financial Times (Chris Giles, Delphine Strauss and George Parker): “The coronavirus crisis will exact the biggest toll on the global economy since the 1930s Great Depression and potentially hit Britain harder than the Spanish flu epidemic and first world war, according to warnings from the IMF and the UK’s fiscal watchdog. The fund’s sobering estimates expect the pandemic to leave lasting economic scars, with the economies of most countries emerging 5% smaller than planned, even after a sharp recovery in 2021. It said the output loss would ‘dwarf’ the global financial crisis 12 years ago. The global contraction this year will be so bad that only a handful of people in the world will have experienced a similar event in their adult lifetimes. The IMF had to look back 90 years to the 1930s Great Depression to find a deeper recession.”


April 14 – Financial Times (Darren Dodd): “The loss in global economic output caused by the coronavirus pandemic will ‘dwarf’ that of the 2008 financial crisis, the IMF warned…, forecasting the worst contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Most economies will shrink by 5%, even after a potential sharp recovery in 2021, the fund said. World output will decline by 3% this year, more than six percentage points down from the IMF growth forecast of 3.3% made in late January. Public finances will be shredded, unemployment will rise sharply and in 90% of the IMF’s 189 member countries incomes per person will fall.”


April 14 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): 
“The global economic hit from the coronavirus crisis will likely be four times worse than the financial crisis and the U.S. will see its highest unemployment rate since World War II, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast. With most of the world’s developing economies on a near total shutdown to try to stop the coronavirus spread, Goldman sees a second-quarter GDP decline of 11% from a year ago and 35% from the previous quarter on an annualized basis. In the U.S., the headline unemployment rate should hit 15% ‘and even this understates the severity of the situation’ as many workers will be sidelined and not looking for jobs… That will accompany a GDP decline in the U.S. of 11% from a year ago and 34% on a quarterly basis, both numbers also considerably worse than anything seen during the financial crisis in 2008.”


Trump Administration Watch:

April 13 – Reuters (David Lawder): 
“A steep economic downturn and massive coronavirus rescue spending will nearly quadruple the fiscal 2020 U.S. budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, a staggering 18.7% of U.S. economic output, a Washington-based watchdog group said… Releasing new budget estimates based on spending mandated by law, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) also projected that the fiscal 2021 deficit would reach $2.1 trillion in 2021, and average $1.3 trillion through 2025 as the economy recovers from damage caused by coronavirus-related shutdowns.”


April 13 – Roll Call (David Lerman): “Goldman Sachs estimated last week that the deficit would widen to $3.6 trillion, amounting to 17.7% of gross domestic product. By contrast, the deficit never reached 10% of GDP during the Great Recession of 2007-09… And that estimate doesn’t account for any future bills that Congress may take up. Goldman Sachs said additional legislation is likely, amounting to perhaps $500 billion.”


April 15 – Washington Post (Andrew Van Dam): “In late February, the Trump administration said it planned to spend $2.5 billion to fight the coronavirus. A month and a half later, President Trump signed off on spending almost a thousand times as much — $2.35 trillion. And that amount doesn’t include the Federal Reserve’s efforts, which are harder to measure but seem likely to blow past the $4 trillion mark… All told, the U.S. government has committed more than $6 trillion to arrest the economic downturn from the pandemic.”


April 16 – CNBC (Thomas Franck and Kate Rogers): “The Small Business Administration’s rescue loan program hit its $349 billion limit on Thursday and is now out of money as the nation’s top Republicans and Democrats struggle to agree on how to restore its funds. The SBA website reads that it is ‘unable to accept new applications for the Paycheck Protection Program based on available appropriations funding. Similarly, we are unable to enroll new PPP lenders at this time.’”


April 16 – Wall Street Journal (Andrew Ackerman): “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is under growing pressure from industry officials and members of Congress to ease strains on mortgage companies as millions of borrowers skip their monthly payments amid the coronavirus outbreak. The Treasury secretary is a key figure because he must agree to let the Federal Reserve set up a program to backstop the companies. Industry officials believe the central bank supports such a plan, while Treasury officials are seen as more lukewarm. Mr. Mnuchin has been hearing from housing-market veterans who know the Treasury secretary from his days on Wall Street, including his tenure running the mortgage-trading desk at Goldman Sachs Group Inc…”


April 15 – Bloomberg (Jennifer A Dlouhy and Sheela Tobben): “The Trump administration is considering paying U.S. oil producers to leave crude in the ground to help alleviate a glut that has caused prices to plummet and pushed some drillers into bankruptcy. The Energy Department has drafted a plan to compensate companies for sitting on as much as 365 million barrels worth of oil reserves by effectively making that untapped crude part of the U.S. government’s emergency stockpile, said senior administration officials…”


Federal Reserve Watch:

April 15 – New York Times (Matt Phillips): “The United States has responded to the economic havoc wrought by the coronavirus with the biggest relief package in its history: $2 trillion. It essentially replaces a few months of American economic activity with a flood of government money — every penny of it borrowed. And where is all that cash coming from? Mostly out of thin air. The traditional view of economic theory holds that governments and central banks have distinct responsibilities. A government sets fiscal policy — spending the money it raises through taxes and borrowing — to run a country. And a central bank uses various levers of monetary policy — like buying and selling government securities to change the amount of money in circulation — to ensure the smooth operation of the country’s economy. But the relief package, called the CARES Act, will require the government to vastly expand its debt at the same time that the Federal Reserve has signaled its willingness to buy an essentially unlimited amount of government debt. With those twin moves, the United States has effectively undone decades of conventional wisdom, embedding into policy ideas that were once relegated to the fringes of economics.”



U.S. Bubble Watch:

April 14 – Bloomberg (Amanda Albright and Craig Torres): “The Federal Reserve’s decision to extend loans only to the most-populous local governments may have a stark, if unintended consequence: excluding some of the cities and counties with the biggest share of black residents. Only cities with more than 1 million residents – and counties with more than 2 million -- will be able to take out loans from the central bank to cover short-term deficits as the coronavirus shutdown decimates their tax revenues. As a result, according to a report… by the Brookings Institution, none of the 35 cities with the biggest share of black residents will qualify. That includes Baltimore, Atlanta and Detroit, a formerly bankrupt city that’s been dealing with a major outbreak of Covid-19. Brookings analysts Aaron Klein and Camille Busette said the minimum population requirements ‘unintentionally deepen what are becoming disturbing and obvious racial disparities of COVID-19.’”


April 15 – New York Post (Mark Moore): “Thousands of protesters on foot and in vehicles converged… on Michigan’s capital to rally against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home orders in the state. ‘Operation Gridlock,’ organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition, created a huge bumper-to-bumper traffic jam around the Michigan Capitol Building in Lansing… Meshawn Maddock, an organizer for the group, said the demonstrators include Republicans, Democrats and independents. ‘Quarantine is when you restrict movement of sick people. Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people,’ Maddock told Fox News. ‘Every person has learned a harsh lesson about social distancing. We don’t need a nanny state to tell people how to be careful.’”


April 15 – New York Times (Mary Williams Walsh): “The ballooning costs of the coronavirus pandemic have put an unexpected strain on the finances of states, which are hurriedly diverting funds from elsewhere to fight the outbreak even as the economic shutdown squeezes their main source of revenue — taxes. States provide most of America’s public health, education and policing services, and a lot of its highways, mass transit systems and waterworks. Now, sales taxes — the biggest source of revenue for most states — have fallen off a cliff… Personal income taxes, usually states’ second-biggest revenue source, started falling in March, when millions lost their paychecks and tax withholdings stopped. April usually brings a big slug of income-tax money, but this year the filing deadlines have been postponed until July. ‘This is going to be horrific for state and local finances,’ said Donald J. Boyd, the head of Boyd Research, an economics and fiscal consulting firm, whose clients include states and the federal government.”


April 11 – Reuters (Elizabeth Dilts Marshall): “JPMorgan…, the country’s largest lender by assets, is raising borrowing standards this week for most new home loans as the bank moves to mitigate lending risk stemming from the novel coronavirus disruption. …Customers applying for a new mortgage will need a credit score of at least 700, and will be required to make a down payment equal to 20% of the home’s value. The change highlights how banks are quickly shifting gears to respond to the darkening U.S. economic outlook and stress in the housing market…”


April 15 – Associated Press (Ken Sweet): “The major banks in the U.S. are anticipating a flood of loan defaults as households and business customers take a big financial hit from the coronavirus pandemic. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs raised the funds set aside for bad loans by nearly $20 billion combined in the first quarter, earnings reports released over the past two days show. And Wall Street expects that figure may go even higher next quarter, a possibility bank executives acknowledged on earnings conference calls.”


April 16 – CNBC (Jeff Cox): 
“Protection measures against the coronavirus continued to tear through the employment ranks, with 5.245 million more Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance last week… That brings the crisis total to just over 22 million, nearly wiping out all the job gains since the Great Recession.”


April 15 – CNBC (Diana Olick):
 “A crucial indicator of homebuilder sentiment just suffered its biggest monthly drop in the index’s 35-year history… Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to a reading of 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012, according to the latest National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index… Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions dropped 43 points to 36, sales expectations in the next six months fell 39 points to 36, and buyer traffic decreased 43 points to 13.”


April 14 – Reuters (Lucia Mutikani): 
“U.S. retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946… Retail sales plunged 8.7% last month, the biggest decline since the government started tracking the series in 1992…”


April 15 – Reuters (Lucia Mutikani): 
“U.S. manufacturing output dropped by the most in just over 74 years in March as the novel coronavirus pandemic fractured supply chains, suggesting business investment contracted further in the first quarter. The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday manufacturing production plummeted 6.3% last month, the biggest decrease since February 1946.”


April 16 – Associated Press: 
“U.S. home-building activity collapsed in March as the coronavirus spread, with housing starts tumbling 22.3% from a month ago. …Groundbreakings occurred last month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 million units, down from a 1.56 million pace in February. Construction of single-family houses fell 17.5%, while apartment and condo starts were off 32.1% from a month ago. The drop in housing starts was the worst monthly decline since the 1980s, when new home construction plunged 26.42% in March 1984.”


April 15 – MarketWatch (Greg Robb):
“The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business conditions index plummeted a record 57 points to -78.2 in April, the regional Fed bank said Wednesday. That’s the lowest reading on record. Economists had expected a much smaller decline to -35…”


April 12 – Financial Times (Hudson Lockett, Thomas Hale and Henny Sender): “Luckin Coffee’s implosion has shattered the faith of some international investors when it comes to Chinese companies listed on the world’s biggest stock exchange. The New York-traded shares of the coffee chain… have tumbled more than 80% since it was revealed that an internal investigation found hundreds of millions of dollars of its sales last year were ‘fabricated’. Trading in the stock is currently frozen. The debacle has turned the spotlight back on the accounting risks faced by investors in US-listed Chinese companies, and provided further ammunition for Washington’s China hawks.”


Fixed-Income Bubble Watch:

April 13 – Financial Times (Robert Armstrong and Billy Nauman): 
“Next month, millions of Americans will skip their mortgage payments. Those who have lost their jobs because of the Covid-19 crisis do so without penalty, under the bailout law passed last month. This throws a lifeline to struggling Americans… But the payments are not forgiven. They will be made up later, most likely by extending the term of the loans. They cannot be forgotten, either — not even temporarily. So who will replace the missing money? In the US, most mortgages are not a simple agreement between one borrower and one lender. Instead, millions of borrowers are linked to thousands of bondholders by a complicated financial machine. That the machine will keep cranking out regular payments to the bondholders is implicitly guaranteed by the US government.”


April 16 – Bloomberg (Sally Bakewell and Lisa Lee): “Wall Street banks are lending billions of dollars to desperate companies these days, like hotelier Marriott International and concert producer Live Nation Entertainment. Now, a host of those companies are turning around and asking the banks to waive or loosen financial markers that help ensure the debt will be paid back. And for the most part, the banks, from JPMorgan… to Wells Fargo…, are obliging them because they would otherwise risk triggering a wave of defaults that would swell their loan losses from the pandemic and eat into their capital.”


April 14 – Wall Street Journal (Esther Fung): “Mall and shopping-center owners are compiling a blacklist of large, usually financially stable tenants that haven’t paid their April rent. Big companies that have failed to pay all or some of this month’s rent include the fitness chain Equinox Holdings Inc., Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. and discount fashion retailer Burlington Stores Inc. Petco Animal Supplies Inc., French luxury conglomerate LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, lingerie maker Victoria’s Secret and office-supply chain Staples Inc. also fall into this category… Many landlords said they are willing to work with smaller local businesses that have limited cash and have experienced collapsing revenue with customers sheltering in place. But some property owners are taking a more confrontational approach with larger delinquent tenants that landlords believe have cash or access to capital but have failed to pay their rent anyway.”


China Watch:

April 12 – Financial Times (Naoki Matsuda): “Shopping malls and stores in China have quickly reopened as the government promotes a return to business as usual, only to see consumers stay home and keep their purse strings tight or shop online. Customer traffic is ‘less than half of usual levels’ said a worker at a Walmart store in a Shanghai suburb late last month. Shelves in the vegetable and meat departments were well stocked, but few shoppers passed through the aisles during the normally busy late-afternoon hours. Even with its online delivery service, ‘sales are not growing at all’, the worker said.”


April 11 – Associated Press (Joe McDonald): “China’s auto sales sank 48.4% in March from a year ago as the economy reeled from the coronavirus…, adding to strains for the struggling industry in its biggest global market. Sales of SUVs, sedans and minivans totaled just over 1 million… Total vehicle sales, including trucks and buses, declined 43.3% to 1.4 million. The decline was an improvement over February’s record-setting 81.7% sales plunge…”


April 15 – Bloomberg: 
“Air-passenger traffic slumped 54% in China in the first three months of 2020 as the coronavirus outbreak and related travel restrictions decimated demand. China’s aviation industry lost 39.8 billion yuan ($5.6bn) in the first quarter…”


April 15 – Financial Times (Hudson Lockett): 
“China’s central bank has cut one of its most important lending rates to a record low as Beijing seeks cushion the hit to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. The move by the People’s Bank of China will inject RMB100bn ($14.2bn) into the country’s financial system… The central bank cut the one-year medium-term lending rate to by 0.2 percentage points to 2.95% — its lowest level since it was introduced in 2014.”


April 17 – Associated Press: 
“European car sales tanked last month amid strict lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus that shut down dealerships for at least half of March and dried up consumer spending. The European carmaker’s association, ACEA, said… new car registrations ‘recorded a dramatic drop’ of 55% to 567,308 units. The drop is worse even than during the 2008-9 global financial crisis... The steepest losses during that financial crisis occurred in January 2009, when sales fell 27%.”


April 13 – Reuters (Abraham Gonzalez): “Mexico’s economy will shrink 7.6% in 2020, more than double a previous forecast, and its ‘policy response to the coronavirus is among the weakest anywhere in the world,’ according to UBS. The Swiss bank’s revised forecast, from a 3.5% decline predicted earlier for Latin America’s No. 2 economy, would mark a bigger annual nosedive for Mexico than anything seen during the 1980s debt crisis, the so-called Tequila crisis in 1995, or the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.”



Geopolitical Watch:

April 15 – Bloomberg:
“China criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to temporarily halt funding to the World Health Organization and pledged to support the global health body. Trump… said he ordered the move against the WHO because it took China’s claims about the coronavirus ‘at face value’ and failed to share information about the pandemic as it spread. China has ‘serious concerns’ about the decision and called on the U.S. to fulfill its responsibilities, foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said… ‘This U.S. decision will weaken the WHO’s capabilities and undermine international cooperation,’ Zhao said…”

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