Problems WIth Trump's Plan to Reopen The Economy

The actual economy

re-opening will be 

determined by 

the states, not the 

federal government.

Opening quickly 

increases the risks

of a second wave 

of COVID-19.

The state governor 

would be blamed,

especially if he 

or she was 

Republican.

Democrat governors

who delay reopening

hurt Trump's chances

of reelection, but then

Republicans in their

states would protest.

When the weather 

gets warm, most 

viruses fade away,

and most people want

to get outside together.

See seasonality charts

for other corona family

viruses, that we hope

will apply to COVID-19:

The Trump Administration 

released a three-phase plan 

for reopening the economy.

Each phase requires 

a 14-day period 

to determine the impact 

on health statistics.

14 days may be too

short, because some

infected people get

symptoms after one

week or more.

So a “new normal” 

Phase 3 would require 

at least 28 days,

assuming a governor

chooses to follow

the Trump guidelines.

Here are the details:

Phase one: 

Most restrictions remain in place, 

but “some large public places — 

including restaurants, movie theaters, 

sporting venues and places of worship 

— would be allowed to operate 

under strict physical distancing 

protocols.

Elective surgeries could resume 

and gyms could reopen as long as

they maintained physical distancing.”

Phase two: 

Nonessential travel resumes, 

schools reopen, and bars open with 

“diminished standing room occupancy.”

Phase three: 

The “new normal”,

assuming a downward 

trends in cases, allow 

“public interactions” 

with physical distancing, 

and unrestricted staffing 

of worksites, resume visits 

to care homes and hospitals, 

and further ease capacity 

restrictions at bars.

I don't believe any U.S. state 

currently meets the above

criteria for a reduction 

in new COVID infection

cases.

After a 14-day downward trend 

in cases, I believe the state 

should have:

(1)

widespread availability of tests,

 (2) 

the ability to aggressively 

track cases and people affected,

and 

(3)

 the ability to quickly

supply enough medical 

equipment if there is 

a COVID rebound.

Meeting all three of the 

above conditions 

would be challenging.

So I have to expect states

with cases still growing

to wait at least until 

May 15 or June 1

to implement phase 1.

Social distancing 

with large crowds?

Younger people in bars

may not care, but would

older people go to a bar

with a mask on, and sit

at least six feet apart ?

For sports arenas, people 

go through turnstiles, 

visit the bathroom, and

they often buy food 

and drink. 

How could they always 

maintain a six foot 

safety zone?

The same applies 

to church services, 

and public transportation.

One or more Democrat 

governors may delay 

reopening their states 

to be extra safe 

( which would also impair 

the economy, and Trump's 

chances of re-election ).