Thinking about opening the U.S. economy for business

It's true the "experts", 

and their models, 

were wrong about

COVID-19 deaths.

That does not mean

staying home and

social isolation 

was bad advice.

Even if the number

of lives saved were 

not large enough

to offset the costs:

 Social and financial 

pain for people 

who self-isolated,

some without 

any income.

"Experts" and 

their models

have been wrong 

about a coming 

climate crisis

since the 1970s, 

but there are still

plenty of believers.

So, what will people

believe about the

COVID-19 virus

on May 1, or June 1,

or July 1, or August 1,

when they are finally 

told "it's now safe"

to return to work,

by the "experts" ?

I'm assuming 

there is no

safe and effective

COVID-19 vaccine 

by August 1:

Will people trust

the "experts" ?

Will people travel on 

a crowded bus, train,

subway or plane ?

Will people get in a 

taxi or Uber car ?

Will people go to a 

crowded bar or 

restaurant ?

Will people go to 

a ball game ?

After six weeks

( to May 1)

to 18 weeks

(to August 1)

of social isolation,

how much risk 

will people take,

knowing that 

COVID-19 

infections

may have 

no symptoms ?

The answers to

these questions 

are very important

to determine 

how fast the U.S.

economy could 

rebound from the

unprecedented

partial shutdown.

Influenza is typically

very seasonal --

cases peak in 

March, and deaths

(about 1 of 1,000)

peak in April.

15,000 to 60,000 dead

is a typical U.S. year

for ordinary flu strains,

Heat and humidity

significantly slow

the spread of the flu.

Then the next flu season 

starts roughly October 1.

COVID-19 seems to 

be following that 

seasonal pattern, 

but we can't be sure.

We can be sure 

COVID-19 spreads

rapidly and the death

rate could be 

as high as 1 in 100,

much higher than 

ordinary fly strains.

We can be confident

that the lack of a vaccine

will prevent the economy

from returning to "normal".