This indicator
has recommended
8% cash,
or less,
for traders,
since
March 18, 2020:
The Four-Week Moving Average
has recommended
8% cash,
or less,
for traders,
since
March 18, 2020:
The Four-Week Moving Average
of this contrary opinion indicator,
is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC
U.S. stock market timing indicators.
It's the ONLY short-term indicator.
It recommends from 0% to 100% cash
in your stock trading portfolio.
in your stock trading portfolio.
For the week ending
June 24, 2020:
June 24, 2020:
24.1% bulls (24.4% last week)
(historical average is 38.5%)
48.9% bears (47.8% last week)
(historical average is 30.5%)
= Bullish
= Bullish
( was Bullish last week )
33.0% of AAII investors were bullish
( was 33.8% last week )
Four Week Moving Average
= Bullish
= Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
= 38.9% of AAII investors were bullish
( was 41.7% last week )
Recommended
portfolio cash
percentage
for short term
stock traders
= 0% cash
portfolio cash
percentage
for short term
stock traders
= 0% cash
( was 4% cash last week )
The EL Back-to-Basics
long term portfolio
long term portfolio
actual cash position:
= 100% cash
= 100% cash
( was 100% cash last week )
Notes:
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink")
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink")
when individual AAII investors are bullish.
This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink")
when individual AAII investors are bearish.
( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).
Indicator Analysis:
( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )
( under 40% is Bullish )
I prefer the four-week moving average
because it has much less volatility
than weekly data.
Active traders may prefer weekly data.
Data Source:
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