Thursday, June 18, 2020

AAII Sentiment remains Moderstely Bullish -- 4% cash recommended for traders

This indicator 
has recommended 
8% cash, 
or less, 
for traders, 
since 
March 18, 2020:

The Four-Week Moving Average 
of this contrary opinion indicator,
is one the seven ECONOMIC LOGIC
U.S. stock market timing indicators.

It's the ONLY short-term indicator.

It recommends from 0% to 100% cash 
in your stock trading portfolio.


For the week ending 
June 17, 2020:
24.4%  bulls  (34.3% last week) 
    (historical average is 38.5%)
47.8%  bears (38.a% last week) 
    (historical average is 30.5%)
= Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
33.8% of AAII investors were bullish
( was 47.4% last week )


Four  Week  Moving  Average
= Moderately Bullish
( was Moderately Bullish last week )
= 41.7% of AAII investors were bullish 
( was 43.0% last week )


Recommended  
portfolio cash 
percentage 
for short term
stock traders 
= 4% cash
( was 8% cash last week )



The EL Back-to-Basics
  long term portfolio
actual  cash  position: 
= 100% cash  
( was 100% cash last week )



Notes: 
This contrary indicator is bearish (red "ink") 
when individual AAII investors are bullish. 

This contrary indicator is bullish (green "ink") 
when individual AAII investors are bearish.

( I ignore all the “neutral” votes ).




Indicator Analysis:
   (  over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish ) 
  ( under 40% is Bullish )



I prefer the four-week moving average 
because it has much less volatility
than weekly data.

Active traders may prefer weekly data.

Data Source:

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