Monthly Economic Data Releases

Updated on:
June 10, 2020

Source of most data,
and all charts:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators

Source of employment data:
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls
+ must search bls.gov site to get 
the labor force participation rate

Note: 

During healthy 

economic growth, 

at least three-quarters

of data releases 

are good news,

(1) 

Durable  Goods  Orders:

(2)

Durable Goods Orders:

excluding volatile 

transportation orders:

(3)

Factory  Orders:

(4) 

Industrial  Production:

(5)

Construction  Spending:

 (6)

Case-Shiller  Home  Price Index:

(7)

Housing  Starts:

(8)

New   Home  Sales:

      

1Q  2020  GDP

Real final sales 
-- second estimate --

Real final sales is the
GDP minus volatile
inventory changes

1Q 2019 was -3.6% annual growth rate
4Q 2019 was +3.1% 
3Q 2019 was +2.1%
2Q 2019 was +2.9% 
1Q 2019 was +2.6%
4Q 2018 only +0.6%
3Q 2018 only +0.6%

2Q 2018 was +4.7% 

1Q 2018 was +2.4%        

4Q 2017 was +4.1%

3Q 2017 was +2.2%

2Q 2017 was +2.1% 

1Q 2017 was +3.0% Trump starts here

May 2020

Household  

Employment  

Survey

    Note: 

50% more volatile, 

from month to month,

than the more popular

Payroll Survey 

-- so I recommend 

averaging three months

of data: 

   Employment 

- Employment up       +3,839,000 in May 2020 (60.8%)
                                                           ( 60.8% is the labor force participation rate )

- Employment down -22,369,000 in April 2020 (60.2%)

- Employment down -2,987,000 in March 2020 (62.7%)

- Employment up        +45,000 in February 2020 (63.4%)

- Employment down    -85,000 in January 2020 (63.4%)

- Employment up      +267,000 in December 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up        +83,000 in November 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +241,000 in October 2019 (63.3%)

- Employment up      +393,000 in September 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +590,000 in August 2019 (63.2%)

- Employment up      +283,000 in July 2019 (63.0%)

- Employment up      +247,000 in June2019 (62.9%)

- Employment up      +113,000 in May 2019 (62.8%)

- Employment down  -103,000 in April 2019 (62.8%)

 Unemployment

- Unemployment down -2.093,000 in May 2020
- Unemployment  up +15,938,000 in April 2020 
- Unemployment  up  +1,353,000 in March 2020 

- Unemployment down -105,000 in February 2020

- Unemployment     up +139,000 in January 2020 

- Unemployment down   -58,000 in December 2019

- Unemployment down   -44,000 in November 2019

- Unemployment up        +86,000 in October 2019

- Unemployment down  -275,000 in September 2019

- Unemployment down    -19,000 in August 2019

- Unemployment up        +88,000 in July 2019 

- Unemployment up        +87,000 in June 2019

- Unemployment up        +64,000 in May 2019

Notes on:

Household Survey 

vs. Payroll Survey

PAYROLL  SURVEY:

( "establishment survey" ) 

Used for the headline 

jobs growth number, 

released the first Friday 

of every month, based on 

employer reporting.

--- Three part-time jobs 

count as three jobs.

The BLS claims 

that they attempt to 

avoid double-counting,

but they don't eliminate 

duplicate Social Security 

numbers, so the potential 

for double-counting jobs 

in the Payroll Survey is large.

-- The self employed are 

not included.

HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY: 

-- This is a phone survey, 

conducted by the BLS. 

-- Includes the self employed.

-- If you work one hour a week, 

even selling things on eBay, 

you are considered employed.

-- If you don’t have a job, 

and fail to look for one, 

you are considered to be 

out of the labor force. 

Searching through want-ads, 

or looking online for jobs, 

does not count. 

You need to submit a resume, 

or talk to a prospective 

employer, or employment 

agency.

--- If you work three part-time jobs, 

12 hours each, the Household

Survey considers you 

a full-time employee.

NEED  FOR  REVISIONS

The Household Survey

is never revised -- the

phone calls are made once.

The Household Survey 

is more accurate

in the months just before 

a recession begins,

but all employment surveys 

are LAGGING indicators.

The Payroll Survey 

tends to need large

negative revisions

in the months 

just before, and just after, 

a recession begins.