Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators

The  Economic  Logic  

Seven  Stock  Market  

Timing  Indicators:  

Indicator Total   -1.0  

=  Neutral   

 ( was -1.5 Moderately Bearish last week )  

  ( Range is -7 to +7 )

The  Seven  Indicators:

Short  term  indicator                               

(1) AAII Sentiment Ratio

--- Bullish 

At 35.2% bullish 

(7/1/20 4-week average) 

Medium  term  indicators  

(2) Election Year Cycle

 --- Bullish 

From June 2020 to June 2021

(3) Seasonality Cycle

--- Bearish 

From May 2020 through October 2020, 

       then bullish for 6months. 

(4) Corporate Insiders

--- Bearish 

Very few large buys in past few weeks
-- see next post

(5) Federal Reserve Policy

 --- Bullish 

After a huge expansion of Fed Credit

Long  term  indicators 

(6) S&P500 Price/Sales Ratio 

--- Bearish 

At 2.21x on July 2, 2020

(7) S&P500 Dividend Yield

 --- Bearish 

At 2.3%, assuming dividends 

= 50% of 139.27  

S&P500 2019 earnings

The  Indicator  Total 

Bullish = +3 to +7

Moderately Bullish = +1,5 to +2.5

Neutral = -1 to +1

Moderately Bearish = -1.5 to -2.5

Bearish = -3 to -7

For an individual Indicator:

Bullish = +1 point

Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points

Neutral = 0 points

Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points

Bearish = -1 point