The April Case-Shiller Home Price Index confusion

The April 2020

Case-Shiller 

Home Price 

Index released

last week 

said national 

home prices 

in April 2020,

during the peak 

of the lockdowns, 

were up +4.0%

from April 2019 !

That seemed 

suspicious,

but the Trump

cheerleaders

went wild !

They had no idea

the April index 

is mainly based

on the closings

of home sales 

from late January,

to mid-April !

It will actually be 

three more months,

believe it or not,

( July index, 

released on

September 29 ),

before the Index

mainly reflects 

home prices 

DURING the 

lockdowns.

This is a lagging

indicator -- I only

present it here

because the 

methodology

for comparing 

home prices 

is very good.

Here's the details

  The April 2020

Case-Shiller Index 

is a“three-month

rolling average,” 

of price data from 

public records. 

S&P's 

Case-Shiller  

compares the 

sales price 

of a home,

that sold

recently, 

to the price 

of  the

SAME HOME, 

the last time 

it sold.

The index also tries 

to adjust for likely 

improvements made 

to a home over time.

April 2020

sales volumes

were stunted by 

the pandemic, 

as you would 

expect.

So this year,

the month 

of April 

was a smaller

portion of the 

the three month 

"April" average 

than usual.