Economic Logic Stock Market Timing Indicators now Moderately Bearish

The  Seven

Economic  Logic  

Stock  Market  

Timing  Indicators:  

Indicator  Total   

-1.0   =   Neutral

( was -1.0  Neutral  last week )  

 ( Range is -7 to +7 )

The  Seven  Indicators:

    Short  term  indicator                               

(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio

--- Bullish 

At 34.9% bullish for the

8/12/20 4-week average) 

    Medium  term  indicators  

(2) Election  Year  Cycle

 --- Bullish 

From June 2020 to June 2021

(3) Seasonality  Cycle

--- Bearish 

From May 2020 through October 2020, 

       then bullish for six months. 

(4) Corporate  Insiders

--- Bearish 

Very few large buys in past month

(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy

 --- Bullish 

After a huge expansion of Fed Credit

and the M2 money supply

    Long  term  indicators 

(6) S&P500  Price/Sales  Ratio 

--- Bearish 

At 2.39x on August 14, 2020

(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield

 --- Bearish 

At 2.1%, assuming dividends 

= 50% of 139.27  S&P500  2019 earnings

For  the  Indicator  Total: 

+3  to  +7 = Bullish

+1,5  to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish

-1  to  +1 =  Neutral

-1.5  to  -2.5 = Moderately Bearish

-3  to  -7 = Bearish

For  an  individual  indicator:

Bullish = +1 point

Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points

Neutral = 0 points

Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points

Bearish = -1 point