Saturday, August 29, 2020

EL Market Timing Indicators remain Moderately Bearish

The  Seven
Economic  Logic 
Stock  Market 
Timing  Indicators,
as of August 28, 2020: 

Indicator  Total  
-1.5   =   Moderately Bearish 
  
( was -1.5  Moderately Bearish last week ) 
 ( Range is -7 to +7 )





The  Seven  Indicators:
                         
(1) AAII  Sentiment  Ratio
--- Moderately Bullish
At 40.3% bullish for the
8/26/20 4-week average)
The only short term indicator



(2) Election  Year  Cycle
 --- Bullish
From June 2020 to June 2021


(3) Seasonality  Cycle
--- Bearish
From May 2020 through October 2020,
       then bullish for six months.



(4) Corporate  Insiders
--- Bearish
Very few large buys in past month


(5) Federal  Reserve  Policy
 --- Bullish
After a huge expansion of Fed Credit
and the M2 money supply



(6) S&P500  Price/Sales  Ratio
--- Bearish
At 2.49x on August 28, 2020


(7) S&P500  Dividend  Yield
 --- Bearish
At 2.1%, assuming dividends
= 50% of 139.27  S&P500  2019 earnings




For  the  Indicator  Total:

+3  to  +7 = Bullish
+1,5  to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish
-1  to  +1 =  Neutral
-1.5  to  -2.5 = Moderately Bearish
-3  to  -7 = Bearish


For  an  individual  indicator:
Bullish = +1 point
Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points
Neutral = 0 points
Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points
Bearish = -1 point

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