The Seven
Economic Logic
Stock Market
Timing Indicators,
as of August 28, 2020:
Indicator Total
-1.5 = Moderately Bearish
( was -1.5 Moderately Bearish last week )
( Range is -7 to +7 )
The Seven Indicators:
(1) AAII Sentiment Ratio
--- Moderately Bullish
At 40.3% bullish for the
8/26/20 4-week average)
The only short term indicator
(2) Election Year Cycle
--- Bullish
From June 2020 to June 2021
(3) Seasonality Cycle
--- Bearish
From May 2020 through October 2020,
then bullish for six months.
(4) Corporate Insiders
--- Bearish
Very few large buys in past month
(5) Federal Reserve Policy
--- Bullish
After a huge expansion of Fed Credit
and the M2 money supply
(6) S&P500 Price/Sales Ratio
--- Bearish
At 2.49x on August 28, 2020
(7) S&P500 Dividend Yield
--- Bearish
At 2.1%, assuming dividends
= 50% of 139.27 S&P500 2019 earnings
For the Indicator Total:
+3 to +7 = Bullish
+1,5 to + 2.5 = Moderately Bullish
-1 to +1 = Neutral
-1.5 to -2.5 = Moderately Bearish
-3 to -7 = Bearish
For an individual indicator:
Bullish = +1 point
Moderately Bullish = +0.5 points
Neutral = 0 points
Moderately Bearish = -0.5 points
Bearish = -1 point
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