Friday, September 4, 2020

Unhappy times are here again !

2008 and 2009 was a “deep recession”. What we are experiencing now is much worse.

Yesterday the Labor Department announced 29 million Americans were collecting federal or state unemployment benefits (not seasonally adjusted). That means there are at least 29 million unemployed Americans (18 percent unemployment).



It was surprising that the number was up from 27 million (17 percent unemployment) the week before. The only good news is that 29 million is lower than the 32 million peak (20 percent unemployment) in May. Whether 27 million, 29 million, or 32 million, all these numbers are depression-like numbers!

The monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report for July claimed only 10% unemployment. That is a deception. The August BLS unemployment rate will be similarly deceptive. But sticking our heads in the sand won’t make the bad data go away.

Here's a sampling of bad news, beyond the latest 29 million American collecting unemployment number:

-- About half of the National Association of Business Economics members expect US gross domestic product won’t return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022.

-- According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.

-- New York City reported that it had an unemployment rate of almost 20 percent during the month of July.

-- 83 percent of all NYC restaurants were unable to pay their full rent last month.

-- In South Carolina, 52 percent of all renters “are at risk of eviction”.

-- 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.

-- Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.

-- The Mortgage Bankers Association reported the delinquency rate on residential mortgages increased by 386 basis points last quarter, for the most rapid rise ever seen, by a very wide margin.

-- The percentage of hotel mortgages that are 30 or more days delinquent soared to a whopping 23.4 percent last month.

-- U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years, and still rising.

-- American Airlines announced that they will be eliminating 19,000 jobs.

-- 31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.

-- According to one recent survey, about half of all U.S. workers that have been laid off during this pandemic believe that their jobs losses are permanent.

-- Over the last 22 weeks, a record 57+ million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits.  In all of U.S. history, nothing compares to this.

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