Sunday, September 20, 2020

US stock markets are in an unprecedented valuation bubble

 The list below shows what happened to major foreign stock markets after their stock market  bubbles ... in spite of their central banks, except China, pushing interest rates toward zero, or below zero. Their central banks created lots credit out of thin air to purchase bonds (the modern style money printing). But those central bank policies did NOT push their stock averages back to their old highs.

The US Fed suddenly wants more inflation -- targeting 2%, using their core PCE inflation indicator -- which would be close to 3% using the different consumer price inflation index thaty we know best. Central banks usually create more inflation than their target if they TRY to create inflation. Creating inflation is just the opposite of what a central bank SHOUD do.

So, should you buy a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond now, that pays 0.7% interest for 10 years?  Of course not.  How about day-trading stocks and options?  Only if you want a 95% probability of losing money in the long run, and probably the short run too. Day trading requires a permanent bull market ... that doesn't exist. Stocks that pay a high dividend ... can cut their dividends ... and their price can go down even if they do not cut their dividends.

The U.S. stock market is very overvalued now, but has been the target of global buyers who must believe it can only go up, although their own stock markets are not near their record highs. The US stock market has been an exception ... but ten years from now, the US stock market may not be any higher than today, or may be down from its 2020 peak, with valuations closer to normal..

And I say this assuming President Trump wins the election, and wins in spite of the post-election mail-in ballot fraud, and wins the post-election legal challenges, and survives the post-election riots. I also assume the no longer needed (for many months now) COVID-19 lockdowns will end after election day. As of September, this COVID flu is no worse than any other seasonal flu. Make sure to get your vitamin D every day to say safe -- much more effective than masks.


Now consider 

the following 

foreign stock indexes:
( The following percentages are NOT adjusted for inflation,
so the percentage declines don't include the loss of purchasing power )


Japanese Nikkei 

down 40%

 from the 1989 peak


Shanghai Composite

down 45% from 2007


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng

down 10% from 2007


German DAXK 

down 8% from 2000


UK  FTSE 

down 13% from 1999


Italian FTSE MIB

down about 60% 2000


French CAC40 

down 24% from 2000


Spanish IBEX 35 

down 58% from 2007

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.