The title of this article is an honest summary of what happened to the U.S. output of goods and services, adjusted for inflation, since the good old days before the pandemic began, and no one knew what COVID-19 was.
I suppose it is too close to Election Day for anyone to resist putting their own "spin" on the Real GDP numbers.
I had predicted Real GDP would be up 7 to 8 percent in 3Q 2020 versus 2Q 2020, which would be multiplied by 4 and reported as 28 to 32 percent growth at an annual rate. It's easy to "predict" after the quarter has ended -- just go to GDPnow at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank:
https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf?la=en
Other countries would have just reported quarter to quarter +7.4 percent growth, which is much easier to understand than +33.1 percent.
I also predicted this time the Democrats would be pointing out the "real" number was only about 7.4 percent, not 33.1 percent ... a pesky detail rarely mentioned in the media headlines before this quarter.
The advance estimate is out today at +33.1 percent growth in 3Q 2020, at an annual rate ... although +6.6 percentage points of the +33 total was from the growth of inventories ... meaning Real Final Sales were up at a +26 percent annual rate (+33.1 percent Real GDP minus the +6.6 percent inventory growth = Real Final Sales)
Inventory growth is counted as good news, and explains the large number of train container and trailer (intermodal units) rail cars -- higher than in 2019, for August 2020, September 2020, and the first half of October 2020 !
Let's hope the inventory restocking is not excessive, considering that people who were surveyed said they plan to spend less than usual for Christmas gifts this year.
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