Saturday, December 5, 2020

Financial Data and Top 25 Economic News for the week ending December 4, 2020

Source: 
 
 
Top 25 Economic News added December 6
 
 
For the week ending 
December 4, 2020:

 November
"Dow Industrials were up 12% for the month -- its largest one-month advance since January 1987. The S&P500 returned 10.9% ... The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index posted an 18.3% advance in November. The small cap Russell 2000 also surged 18.3%, and the S&P400 Midcaps rose 14.1%.
 
Major equities indexes were up 25.2% in Spain, 23.0% in Italy, 20.1% in France, 15.0% in Germany, 15.0% in Japan, 10.3% in Canada, and 10.0% in Australia. In EM, equities rose 19.5% in Poland, 15.5% in Russia, 15.4% in Turkey, 14.3% in South Korea, 11.5% in India, 15.9% in Brazil, 13.0% in Mexico and 20.5% in Argentina."

“U.S. Infections, Deaths, Hospitalizations All Hit Record Highs,” read a dreadful Friday Wall Street Journal headline. 
 
Shockingly, daily Covid cases surpassed 228,000 (as reported Friday evening by Bloomberg). 
 
Nationwide, hospitalizations now exceed 100,000 and continue their rapid rise. 
 
Daily deaths are approaching 3,000. 
 
Alarmed by increasingly overwhelmed hospital systems, more states are adopting restrictive measures. 
 

Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area counties reimposed “stay at home orders”, with the entire state of California on the cusp. "

"The pandemic bestowed the Federal Reserve a license to print $3 TN for injection into the markets. The Fed’s pandemic response granted Washington a license to run a $3 TN plus fiscal deficit ... "

 

GLOBAL  STOCKS:
S&P500 up 1.7% 
    (up 14.5% year-to-date)
 
Dow Industrials up 1.0% (up 5.9%)
 
Utilities down 2.4% (down 2.0%)
 
Transports up 1.4% (up 16.9%)
 
S&P 400 Midcaps up 1.8% (up 8.8%)
 
Small cap Russell 2000 up 2.0% (up 13.4%)
 
Nasdaq100 up 2.2% (up 43.5%). 
 
Biotechs up 2.0% (up 10.9%). 
 
With gold bullion up $51, 
the HUI gold stock index 
was up 4.0%
   (up 20.9%)
 
U.K.'s FTSE up 2.9% (down 13.2%).

Japan's Nikkei up 0.4% (up 13.1% y-t-d).
 
France's CAC40 up 0.2% (down 6.2%). 
 
German DAX down 0.3% (up 0.4%). 
 
Spain's IBEX 35 up 1.6% (down 12.8%). 
 
Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.8% (down 5.6%).
 
Brazil's Bovespa index up 2.9% (down 1.6%), 
 
Mexico's Bolsa up 4.9% (up 0.2%). 
 
South Korea's Kospi up 3.7% (up 24.3%).
 
India's Sensex equities up 2.1% (up 9.3%). 
 
China's Shanghai up 1.1% (up 12.9%). 
 
Turkey's Istanbul National 100 index 
   up 0.2% (up 16.3%). 
 
Russia's MICEX up 1.3% (up 4.6%).

 
US  BONDS  &  MORTGAGES:
US Ten-year Treasury bond yields 
jumped 13 bps to 0.97% 
    (down 95bps year over year). 
 
US Thirty-year Treasury bond yields 
surged 16 bps to 1.74%
      (down 65bps).

Freddie Mac 30-year 
fixed mortgage rates 
declined a basis point 
to a record low 2.71% 
   (down 97bps y-o-y). 
 
Fifteen-year rates
 fell two bps 
to an all-time low 2.26% 
   (down 88bps). 
 
Five-year hybrid ARM rates 
dropped back 30 bps to 2.86% 
     (down 53bps). 
 
Jumbo mortgage
30-year fixed rates 
down three bps to 2.94% 
   (down 98bps).

Federal Reserve Credit
over the past year,
expanded 78.6%. 

M2 money supply 
surged 24.4%, 
over the past year. 
 
 
COMMODITIES:
Bloomberg Commodities Index 
down 0.7% 
    (down 8.1% y-t-d)
 
Spot Gold up 2.9% to $1,839
    (up 21.1%). 
 
Silver up 6.8% to $24.32 
    (up 35.7%). 
 
WTI crude oil 
up 57 cents to $46.09 
    (down 25%)
 
Gasoline down 1.4%
    (down 25%)
 
Natural Gas down 10.5% 
   (up 17%). 
 
Copper up 3.1%
     (up 26%). 
 
Wheat down 5.0%
    (up 3%). 
 
Corn down 3.4% 
    (up 8%).
 
TOP  25  ECONOMIC  NEWS

(1)
December 2
– CNBC
(Will Feuer):

“More than 100,000 people are currently in hospitals across the U.S. sick with Covid-19, as the pandemic pushes doctors, nurses and other health workers to their limits. The current number of hospitalized patients underscores the scope and severity of the current phase of the U.S. outbreak. Never before had the number of hospitalized Covid patients surpassed 60,000, according to data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project, which is run by journalists at The Atlantic.”

(2)
December 3
– Bloomberg
(David R Baker):

“California, the first state to tell residents to stay home to fight the coronavirus pandemic, is about to do it again. With cases soaring, Governor Gavin Newsom said he will impose shelter-at-home orders on a regional basis once hospitals start running short of intensive-care capacity. Four of the state’s five areas may hit the threshold within a day or two, he said… Thursday.”

(3)
December 3
– Wall Street Journal
(Costas Paris):

“Pfizer Inc. expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year because of supply-chain problems, but still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021. ‘Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected,’ a company spokeswoman said. ‘And it’s important to highlight that the outcome of the clinical trial was somewhat later than the initial projection.’”

(4)
December 1
– Bloomberg
(Sarah Ponczek and
Katherine Greifeld):

“Over the last 20 days, an average of more than 20 million call contracts -- bets that stocks will rise -- have traded each day across U.S. exchanges, the highest ever… There was no Thanksgiving slowdown. On a single day before the break, a record 35 million call options changed hands. ‘There is certainly a lot of bullishness, euphoria, FOMO,’ said Chris Murphy, the co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna.”

(5)
December 2 
– Bloomberg 
(Ruth Carson and 
Joanna Ossinger): 
“One of the year’s biggest spikes in Treasury yields has investors mapping out the impact of rising rates on markets ranging from stocks to corporate bonds. Renewed optimism about U.S. stimulus talks pushed the benchmark 10-year yield to a high of 0.96% on Wednesday, a move which if continued could spark a domino effect across risk assets trading at all-time highs thanks to low interest rates. At issue is whether the jump in yields is accompanied by an economic recovery and moderate levels of inflation that would allow the Federal Reserve to keep rates low.”

(6)
November 30
– Financial Times
(Gavyn Davies):

“... this year’s surge in borrowing has been called the largest wave in a great ‘debt tsunami’. The Institute of International Finance recently reported that the ratio of global debt to gross domestic product will rise from 320% in 2019 to a record 365% in 2020. The IIF concludes starkly: ‘more debt, more trouble’. Financial markets have ignored these warnings. Global equities have reached new highs and credit spreads have been narrowing, almost as if extreme debt is a good, not a bad, economic development.”

(7)
December 1
– Bloomberg
 (William Horobin):

 “The resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic has dramatically weakened the global recovery and it could get a lot worse if governments withdraw support too soon or fail to deliver effective vaccines, the OECD warned. Cutting its 2021 global growth forecast to 4.2% from 5% in September, the… organization said a pattern of outbreaks and lockdowns is likely to continue for some time with rising risks of permanent damage.”

(8)
December 2
– Bloomberg
(Matthew Brockett):

 “At a packed auction room in Wellington, New Zealand’s capital city, houses are selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars above their government valuations. A young couple hoping to buy their first home -- a basic three-bedroom dwelling built in the 1950s -- are forced to bow out as the bidding approaches NZ$1.2 million ($850,000). ‘The housing market at the moment is quite ferocious,’ says auctioneer Darryl Harper. ‘Interest rates historically have never been lower, so it’s easy for buyers to borrow money.’”

(9)
November 29
– Reuters
(Alexandra Alper and
Humeyra Pamuk):

“The Trump administration plans to add China’s top chipmaker SMIC and oil giant CNOOC to a blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, escalating tensions with Beijing before President-elect Joe Biden takes office, according to sources… The Department of Defense (DOD) is poised to designate four more Chinese companies as owned or controlled by the Chinese military, bringing the total number to 35.”

(10)
December 2
– Reuters
(Patricia Zengerle):

“The U.S. House of Representatives passed a law to kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges if they do not fully comply with the country’s auditing rules, giving President Donald Trump one more tool to threaten Beijing with before leaving office. The measure passed the House by unanimous voice vote, after passing the Senate unanimously in May, sending it to Trump, who the White House said is expected to sign it into law.”

(11)
November 30
– Financial Times
(James Politi):

“Joe Biden… on Monday announced an economic team that sought to balance experienced Democratic policymakers who will be well-received by markets and business with more progressive economists. The nominees included Janet Yellen, the former Fed chair, as Treasury secretary, and Neera Tanden, a former senior aide to Hillary Clinton and president of the Center for American Progress think-tank, as budget director. Wally Adeyemo, the president of the Obama Foundation and a former international economic official, was tapped to be deputy Treasury secretary. Combined with the expected selection of Brian Deese, a BlackRock executive, to be director of the National Economic Council, the picks signalled Mr Biden’s preference for pragmatic centre-left policymakers in his effort to spur the US recovery amid the pandemic shock, at a time when his ambitions will be limited by a closely divided Congress.”

(12)
November 30
– New York Times
(Jim Tankersley,
 Jeanna Smialek and
Alan Rappeport):

“President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. formally announced his top economic advisers on Monday, choosing a team that is stocked with champions of organized labor and marginalized workers, signaling an early focus on efforts to speed and spread the gains of the recovery from the pandemic recession. The selections build on a pledge Mr. Biden made to business groups two weeks ago, when he said labor unions would have ‘increased power’ in his administration. They suggest that Mr. Biden’s team will be focused initially on increased federal spending to reduce unemployment and an expanded safety net to cushion households that have continued to suffer as the coronavirus persists and the recovery slows.”

(13)
December 1
– Reuters
(Aakriti Bhalla,
Shubham Kalia and
Patrick Graham):

“Joe Biden will not immediately cancel the trade agreement that President Donald Trump struck with China nor take steps to remove tariffs on Chinese exports, the New York Times… quoted the U.S. president-elect as saying.”


(14)
December 2
– Bloomberg:

“A 575-page report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission… characterized the world’s second-largest economy as a threat to the current international order that has American values at its core. It added China’s leaders view those values as a barrier to the country’s external ambitions and an existential threat to their rule. ‘Chinese leaders’ assessment of the United States as a dangerous and firmly committed opponent has informed nearly every facet of China’s diplomatic strategy, economic policy, and military planning in the post-Cold War era,’ the panel said.”

(15)
December 1
– Financial Times
(Colby Smith and
Tommy Stubbington):

“A measure showing financial market expectations for future US inflation has risen to its highest level in 18 months… The 10-year ‘break-even’ rate, which is derived from prices of US inflation-protected government securities, hit 1.83% on Tuesday, higher than at any point since May last year. Meanwhile, a swap rate that measures expectations for the average level of inflation over five years, five years from now, has jumped to 2.25% — above the 2% inflation target that the US Federal Reserve has for years persistently failed to achieve.”

(16)
December 3 
– Bloomberg 
(Laura Litvan and 
Steve Matthews): 
“The Senate confirmed Christopher Waller to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, but the status of President Donald Trump’s second nominee, Judy Shelton, remained in limbo amid opposition from Democrats and some Republicans. Senators voted 48-47 to put Waller on the U.S. central bank, concluding a confirmation process that had been dragged out for months because of controversy surrounding Shelton, who was nominated by Trump at the same time.”

(16)
December 1
– Bloomberg
(Davide Scigliuzzo):

“The Covid-19 crisis could be worse than the Great Recession for companies that had high levels of indebtedness at the start of the outbreak, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Firms in industries most affected by the pandemic such as tourism, travel and hospitality could grow as much as 10% more slowly than in ordinary times if the current crisis plays out in a similar way to the economic decline of 2007 to 2009.”

(17)
December 2
– Bloomberg
(Alex Tanzi):

“About 76 million Americans expect someone in their household to suffer a drop in income over the next few weeks… according to the latest Census Bureau survey. The figure… is up by almost 11 million compared with the late-August edition. Part of the increase likely stems from the looming end of federal income support for people hit by the coronavirus slump. While some measures to help the unemployed have already wound down, two more programs -- which extended the duration of jobless benefits, and expanded them to include gig workers and freelancers -- are both due to lapse on Dec. 26.”

(18)
November 30
– CNBC
(Stephanie Landsman):

“The U.S. may be on the cusp of a double-dip recession. Economist Stephen Roach believes surging coronavirus cases are disrupting Wall Street’s hopes for a V-shaped recovery. ‘With the infection rate soaring right now, a still vulnerable U.S. economy is likely to experience further lockdowns,’ the Yale University senior fellow told CNBC… Even though he believes the lockdowns won’t be as severe as they were last spring, Roach warns the damage will be undeniable. ‘That’ll lead to a temporary relapse in the economy probably in the first quarter,’ said Roach… ‘We’ve had those relapses in 8 of the last 11 business cycle upturns, and I don’t think this one is an exception to that rule.’”

(19)
December 3
– CNBC
 (Jeff Cox):

“New jobless-claim filings last week reached their lowest level of the pandemic crisis, providing a sign that hiring is continuing if at a slower pace. First-time claims for unemployment benefits totaled 712,000 last week, compared with 787,000 a week earlier and the Dow Jones estimate of 780,000… Continuing claims also fell sharply, dropping 569,000 to 5.52 million.”

(20)
November 28
– CNBC
(Lauren Thomas):

“Traffic at stores on Black Friday fell by 52.1% compared with last year, as Americans by and large eschewed heading to malls and queuing up in lines for shopping online, according to… Sensormatic Solutions. For the six key weeks of the holiday season this year, traffic in retail stores is expected to be down 22% to 25% year over year…”

(21)
December 1
– Bloomberg
(Natalie Wong):

“Manhattan hasn’t had this much available office space since 2003, according to… Colliers International. The availability rate rose to 13.5% in November, with more companies looking to sublease their offices, Colliers said. The pandemic has emptied out Manhattan offices and prompted companies to reconsider how much space they need as they try to trim costs.”

(22)
December 3
– Wall Street Journal
(Alexander Gladstone):

 “November bankruptcy filings in the U.S. hit a 14-year low, driven by a decline in individuals filing for protection from creditors as they continue to enjoy the benefits of eviction moratoriums and other government assistance stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. Total bankruptcy filings amounted to 34,440 for the month, the lowest monthly total since January 2006, according to… Epiq Systems Inc.”

(23)
December 3
– Bloomberg
(Paula Seligson):

“A growing number of junk-rated corporations including Delta Air Lines Inc. and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. are losing money even before they pay interest and other necessary expenses like taxes. They’re covering those costs with cash they still have and with more borrowing in the bond and loan markets… In the latest quarter, the number of junk-rated corporations that borrow in U.S. dollars and lost money before paying interest and other required expenses, known as having negative Ebitda, reached an eye-popping 47… That’s nearly double the level in the second quarter, out of a universe of about 600 borrowers.”


(24)
December 2 
– Financial Times 
(Hudson Lockett):
 “China’s credit rating agencies are standing by their triple A scores for troubled state-owned enterprises, even as a series of defaults reverberates through the country’s $4tn corporate debt market. Just five Chinese companies out of more than 5,000 have been downgraded to below double A ratings by domestic rating agencies since Yongcheng Coal and Electricity Holding Group… kicked off a spate of defaults last month… Double A ratings are crucial in China as groups with lower ratings cannot issue publicly traded debt. More than 98% of the outstanding bond issuance in the country is backed by issuers graded double A or higher.”


(25)
November 30
– Reuters
 (Gabriel Crossley):

 “Activity in China’s factory sector accelerated at the fastest pace in a decade in November, a business survey showed on Tuesday, as the world’s second-largest economy recovers to pre-pandemic levels. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.9 from October’s 53.6…” 

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