AAII Sentiment remains Neutral -- 42% cash recommended for traders

I've been tracking these numbers 

since about 2005, and for the first time, 

 no data were released two weeks ago.

 

So today's "four week average" 

will actually cover a five week period.

 

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

 

This is a short term

contrary opinion

market timing indicator:

-- It is bullish when

AAII individual

investors are bearish,

and vice versa.

 

This indicator 

had recommended
from 0% to 8% cash 

from March 18, 2020, 

until October 28, 2020

The Week Ending on January 27, 2021:

 = NEUTRAL

50.3% of AAII Investors bullish

(was 55.2%

=  NEUTRAL

last week)

Five  Week  Moving  Average: 

= NEUTRAL

56.9%  of AAII Investors bullish

(was 60.9%

=NEUTRAL

two weeks ago)

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 42%

(was 52% cash two weeks ago)

My own LONG-TERM

Stock Portfolio:

= 100% cash

(was 100% cash last week)

( % cash based on all

seven Economic Logic

stock timing indicators)

For the WEEK

ending 1/27/21: 

37.7% were Bullish 
   (was 42.5%last week)

24.0% were Neutral 
    (was 23.0%)

38.3% were Bearish 

    (was 34.5%)

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

 

 

This short term

indicator recommends

from 0% to 100% cash

in a stock portfolio,

based on an online survey

of individual investors.

 

The four-week

moving average,

has much less

volatility than

weekly data.

 

Active traders

may prefer

the weekly data.