AAII Sentiment remains Neutral -- 52% cash recommended for traders

I've been tracking these numbers since about 2005, and for the first time, no data were released last week. and the prior week was revised ... twice.

 

So today's "four week average" will actually cover a five week period.

 

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

 

This is a short term

contrary opinion

market timing indicator:

-- It is bullish when

AAII individual

investors are bearish,

and vice versa.

 

This indicator 

had recommended
from 0% to 8% cash 

from March 18, 2020, 

until October 28, 2020

The Week Ending on January 20, 2021:

 = NEUTRAL

55.2% of AAII Investors bullish

(was 58.8%

=  NEUTRAL

two weeks earlier)

Five  Week  Moving  Average: 

= NEUTRAL

60.9%  of AAII Investors bullish

(was 62.7%

=NEUTRAL

two weeks ago)

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 52%

(was 57% cash two weeks ago)

My own LONG-TERM

Stock Portfolio:

= 100% cash

(was 100% cash last week)

( % cash based on all

seven Economic Logic

stock timing indicators)

For the WEEK

ending 1/20/21: 

42.5% were Bullish 
   (was 45.2% two weeks ago)

23.0% were Neutral 
    (was 23.1%)

34.5% were Bearish 

    (was 31.7%)

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

 

 

This short term

indicator recommends

from 0% to 100% cash

in a stock portfolio,

based on an online survey

of individual investors.

 

The four-week

moving average,

has much less

volatility than

weekly data.

 

Active traders

may prefer

the weekly data.