AAII data released last week were not correct.
january 7 weekly numbers revised by AAII.
Then revised again.
Last night, the following Twitter note
suggests no new data until next Thursday:
AAII Sentiment Survey update: Due to a software error, the results for the most recent survey period cannot be tabulated. The issue is being resolved and we expect to post updated survey results next Thursday.
This indicator was originally posted here
last week as Neutral with 55% cash recommended.
The revised numbers are still Neutral
but with 57% cash recommended,
a small change
Data Source:
This short term indicator
had recommended
from 0% to 8% cash
from 0% to 8% cash
from March 18, 2020,
until October 28, 2020
The Week Ending on January 7, 2021:
= NEUTRAL
58.8% of AAII Investors bullish
(was 63.2%
= NEUTRAL
one week earlier)
Four Week Moving Average:
= NEUTRAL
62.7% of AAII Investors bullish
(was 64.0%
=NEUTRAL
last week)
Recommended Portfolio Cash
percentage for short term traders:
= 57%
(was 60% cash last week)
My own LONG-TERM
Stock Portfolio:
= 100% cash
(was 100% cash last week)
( % cash based on all
seven Economic Logic
stock timing indicators)
For the WEEK
ending 1/7/21:
45.2% were Bullish
(was 46.1% in prior week)
(was 46.1% in prior week)
23.1% were Neutral
(was 27.7%)
(was 27.7%)
31.7% were Bearish
(was 26.8%)
AAII Indicator Analysis:
( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )
( under 40% is Bullish )
This short term
indicator recommends
from 0% to 100% cash
in a stock portfolio,
based on an online survey
of individual investors.
This is a short term
contrary opinion
market timing indicator:
-- It is bullish when
AAII individual
investors are bearish,
and vice versa.
The four-week
moving average,
has much less
volatility than
weekly data.
Active traders
may prefer
the weekly data.
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