AAII Sentiment remains Neutral -- 35% cash recommended for traders

 

Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

 

This is a short term

contrary opinion

market timing indicator:

-- It is bullish when

AAII individual

investors are bearish,

and vice versa.

 

 

This indicator 

had recommended  

between 0% and 8% cash,

from March 18, 2020, 

until October 28, 2020

The Week Ending on February 3, 2021:

 = NEUTRAL

51.2% of AAII Investors bullish

(was 50.3%

=  NEUTRAL

last week)

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= NEUTRAL

53.9%  of AAII Investors bullish

(was 56.9%

=NEUTRAL

last week)

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 35%

(was 42% cash last week)

My own LONG-TERM

Stock Portfolio:

= 100% cash

(was 100% cash last week)

( % cash based on all

seven Economic Logic

stock timing indicators)

For the WEEK

ending 2/3/21: 

37.4% were Bullish 
   (was 37.7%last week)

27.1% were Neutral 
    (was 24.0%)

35.6% were Bearish 

    (was 38.3%)

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

 

 

This short term

indicator recommends

from 0% to 100% cash

in a stock portfolio,

based on an online survey

of individual investors.

 

The four-week

moving average,

has much less

volatility than

weekly data.

 

Active traders

may prefer

the weekly data.