Thursday, March 18, 2021

COVID vaccines will fix the economy?

Last week I published a summary of a long article about how many unanswered questions there are about the new COVID vaccines. 

My summary was also quite long. 

The bottom line is the new COVID vaccines are a medical experiment and no one knows how successful the experiment will be.
 

Rather than doing a shorter summary of my prior summary, I'll just tell you MY OWN risk versus reward analysis, which led me to NOT participate in the COVID vaccine experiment.  

If the vaccines work as well as promised (past traditional flu vaccines worked less well than hoped, because flu viruses mutate), there will be even less reason for me to get a vaccine. But I do thank everyone who participates in the experiment. I have several allergies, and do not want to find out I am allergic to some chemical in the vaccine. Note: I have never taken any flu vaccine before, and have never had the flu.


Following is some of the information that informed my decision, and may interest some readers here:

This is an experiment, unlike introducing a traditional vaccine: mRNA is an unproven technology that Moderna previously tried to use treat Crigler-Najjar syndrome, and it failed. 


The new COVID vaccines were developed in about nine months versus the usual 3 to 10 years for conventional vaccines, with no liability for manufacturers, no knowledge of how long immunity will last, no knowledge of whether the vaccine will prevent transmission, no knowledge of side effects beyond the first few months, and no evidence they will work as well with COVID
variants (mutations). 

Considering personal experiences of friends who have had positive COVID tests (about 10), half only had mild symptoms, and half had typical flu symptoms -- two with severe flu symptoms. These were mainly people over age 60. None were hospitalized, and none died.

Absolute risk reduction from the Pfizer and Moderna  vaccine is very small, and those numbers, in my opinion, are more informative than the 95% claimed relative risk reduction, whether the 95% is accurate, or not.

Absolute risk reduction is the:
% taking placebo who get COVID symptoms
               
  minus the
% taking injection who get COVID symptoms


I believe the official numbers below were based on a few months of data before the injections got their amazingly fast emergency approval:


For the Pfizer/BioNtech injection:

Type of COVID       % taking placebo     % taking injection
"Non-severe"                0.88%                         0.044%
    "Severe"                    0.04%                         0.005%

For the Moderna injection:
Type of COVID       % taking placebo      % taking injection
"Non-severe"                1.33%                          0.08%
    "Severe"                    0.22%                          0.00%

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