AAII Sentiment improved to barely Neutral -- but 74% cash recommended for traders

  Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

This is a short term

contrary opinion

market timing indicator:

-- It is bullish

when AAII individual

investors are bearish,

and vice versa.

 

 

This indicator 

had recommended  

between 0% and 8% cash,

from March 18, 2020, 

until October 28, 2020

The Week Ending on April 28, 2021:

 = NEUTRAL

63.3% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 72.0% bullish

= MODERATELY BEARISH

last week)

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= NEUTRAL

69.4% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 70.2%

= MODERATELY BEARISH last week)

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 74%

(was 76% cash last week)

For the WEEK

ending 4/28/21: 

42.6% were Bullish 
   (was 52.7% last week)

31.8% were Neutral 
    (was 26.8%)

25.7% were Bearish 

    (was 20.5%)

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

 

This short term

indicator recommends

from 0% to 100% cash

in a stock portfolio,

based on an online survey

of individual investors.

 

The four-week

moving average,

has much less

volatility than

weekly data.

 

Active traders

may prefer

the weekly data.