AAII Sentiment remains Neutral (barely) -- 75% cash (revised) recommended for traders

 Data Source:

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

 

This is a short term

contrary opinion

market timing indicator:

-- It is bullish

when AAII individual

investors are bearish,

and vice versa.

 

 

This indicator 

had recommended  

between 0% and 8% cash,

from March 18, 2020, 

until October 28, 2020

The Week Ending on April 14, 2021:

 = NEUTRAL

68.6% of AAII Investors were bullish

(was 73.6% bullish

=MODERATELY BEARISH

last week)

Four  Week  Moving  Average: 

= NEUTRAL

70.0% of AAII Investors were bullish

was 69.7%

= NEUTRAL last week)

Recommended Portfolio Cash

percentage for short term traders: 

 = 75% (revised)

(was 74% cash last week)

For the WEEK

ending 4/14/21: 

53.8% were Bullish 
   (was 56.9% last week)

21.6% were Neutral 
    (was 22.7%)

24.6% were Bearish 

    (was 20.4%)

AAII  Indicator Analysis:

    ( over 80% is Bearish )

( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )

( 50% to 70% is Neutral )

( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )

  ( under 40% is Bullish )

 

This short term

indicator recommends

from 0% to 100% cash

in a stock portfolio,

based on an online survey

of individual investors.

 

The four-week

moving average,

has much less

volatility than

weekly data.

 

Active traders

may prefer

the weekly data.