Friday, April 16, 2021

AAII Sentiment remains Neutral (barely) -- 75% cash (revised) recommended for traders

 Data Source:
 
This is a short term
contrary opinion
market timing indicator:
-- It is bullish
when AAII individual
investors are bearish,
and vice versa.
 
 
This indicator 
had recommended  
between 0% and 8% cash,
from March 18, 2020, 
until October 28, 2020


The Week Ending on April 14, 2021:
 = NEUTRAL
68.6% of AAII Investors were bullish
(was 73.6% bullish
=MODERATELY BEARISH
last week)


Four  Week  Moving  Average: 
= NEUTRAL
70.0% of AAII Investors were bullish
was 69.7%
= NEUTRAL last week)


Recommended Portfolio Cash
percentage for short term traders: 
 = 75% (revised)
(was 74% cash last week)


For the WEEK
ending 4/14/21: 
53.8% were Bullish 
   (was 56.9% last week)
21.6% were Neutral 
    (was 22.7%)
24.6% were Bearish 
    (was 20.4%)


AAII  Indicator Analysis:
    ( over 80% is Bearish )
( 71% to 80% is Moderately Bearish )
( 50% to 70% is Neutral )
( 40% to 49% is Moderately Bullish )
  ( under 40% is Bullish )
 
This short term
indicator recommends
from 0% to 100% cash
in a stock portfolio,
based on an online survey
of individual investors.
 
The four-week
moving average,
has much less
volatility than
weekly data.
 
Active traders
may prefer
the weekly data.

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